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Conversion Rates From HM to Marathon
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Re: realworld research:
After some googling I managed to find a link to a couple of articles I remember from some years back:
http://www.hillrunner.com/jim2/id209.html
Unfortunately there is something up with the website but luckily archive.org helped out
http://web.archive.org/web/20090203081730/http://mysite.verizon.net/jim2wr/id70.html
and so did google cache
http://webcache.googleusercontent.com/search?q=cache:JPK_8wTfEdQJ:www.hillrunner.com/jim2/id208.html+jim2+Half+Marathon+Pace+vs.+Marathon+Pace%29&cd=1&hl=en&ct=clnk&gl=uk
I love stats.
Good job on doing this lot.
Just looked back at my times
PB for mara is 2.19 times my PB for half.
First mara is 2.28 times my first half.
My PB for mara is 85% of my first mara
My PB for half is 82% of my first.
Have you thought of publishing this....it would be an interesting study especially if you could get more data perhaps by linking official finishing times. There are some obvious factors that would need controlling in addition to age and gender (eg. slower runners in larger races will be more likely to be hampered with congestion so a variable dealing with the number of runners or possibly difference between gun and chip time could be included).
Sorry to be a stats geek, but did you transform the data to deal with the skew when calculating the CIs. Also how did you deal with runners with multiple data points I see some have contributed over 10 sets of times?
Just thought, time scale would have been good. Started running 3 1/2 years ago. My first race was Reading HM March 2009. My first mara was Stratford April 2010
No worries about being a stats geek! No I didn't transform the data before calculating the intervals. Having looked at it again, using transformed data pulls down the upper limit of the interval a little, pulls down the mean but leaves the bottom limit much the same: First mara - male mean 2.29 (68% between 2.14 and 2.43) female mean 2.22 (68% between 2.11 and 2.34). Average mara - male mean 2.24 (2.15 - 2.35) - female eman 2.19 (2.14 - 2.25).
To account for different numbers of marathons, I looked firstlly only at the first marathons. Then for people with more than one marathon, I worked out their average HM time and average marathon time (excluding the first marathon). Probably are better ways of doing this.
Either way it seems a lot more accurate than other calculators I have tried for me at any rate.
Bump.
Some pointed this thread out to me. 1:41 for half and 3:51 for full. So 2.29!