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# Big Fella Thanks

I have no idea about horses but I just pulled out 'Big Fella Thanks' from the hat.

What are my chances of winning the company's Grand National sweepstake?

• can i say it first?

you've neeeeeeeeeeigh chance.

• That's the beauty of the GN, every horse stands a chance not just the favourites.

• The probability of it finishing 1st, 2nd or 3rd is I believe 0.07696
• Came 4th last year & 6th the year before.
• I always boycott GN sweeps.

Or propose an alternative one on how many horses will be killed.

• If you put a £1 bet on, & it won then you would win £12 + your £1 bet.

A horse with a worse chance of winning will have higher odds eg. 100/1 (£100 win for a £1 bet) You're taking a bigger risk backing it but if it comes in you get more for you bet.

12/1 isn't bad for the GN as there are so many horses and not many make it to the finish. But 2009 the 100/1 won so it's more pot luck then skill picking the winner.

• Sym - what are the chances of coming first, second and third?

12/1 means that you win 12 times more than you put on a bet. So bet £1 and you would win £12 plus your £1 back. The bookmaker can offer odds like that because they only give it an outside chance of winning.
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Devoted2Distance wrote (see)

It says it's got odds of 12/1.

What on earth does that mean then?

That means it's a Sagittarius.
• Devoted2Distance wrote (see)
Out of how many horsees?

30-40 starters I think? But lots fall before the finish.

• Last year one wouldn't even start
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PhilPub wrote (see)
Devoted2Distance wrote (see)

It says it's got odds of 12/1.

What on earth does that mean then?

That means it's a Sagittarius.

We have a winner!!

• ✭✭✭

Usually 40 starters - there are reserves so that if any horse is pulled out, there is a replacement.

I got Character Building in my office sweep.  Currently showing at 25-1, which for the National isn't too bad.

D2D - your horse is quite high up in the rankings, so it looks like it's not a donkey, but even the favourite can fall at the first fence, so don't hold your breath for a payout.
• Badly Drawn Bloke wrote (see)
Last year one wouldn't even start

Sensible horse

I think £25 is the prize for the sweepstake.  12 - 1 is if you go into the bookies

• Devoted2Distance wrote (see)
k8greene wrote (see)

If you put a £1 bet on, & it won then you would win £12 + your £1 bet.

WHAT?

I was told I'd win £25 - whatever horse I bet on!

Ohh. I have been deceived.

*bangs head against desk*

You did a sweepstake instead of a bet right?

• The odds have nothing to do with your office sweepstake which is essentially a raffle for a first prize of £25. If you put a bet on at a bookmakers of £1 at 12/1 you'd get £12 + £1.
• ✭✭✭

S'ok, D2D - a sweepstake is different from the bookies.

In a sweepstake, everyone pays their £, then the winner gets a cut, and some pay out for 2nd and 3rd.  In our place, half the money is going to our nominated charity, so I think the winner gets £10.  There's only one winner, and the organiser is safe.

If you go to the bookies and give him your £, it doesn't matter how many people back the winner, the bookie has to pay out.  The odds give an indication of how much chance the bookie thinks the horse has of winning, so a hot favourite might only get you £1 back for your £1 stake, or even less.

When Ben Nevis won the National at 100-1 many years ago, the bookies in Fort William were cleaned out............

• I'd certainly like to find a bookie offering 25/1 on any horse!

BDB - err, zero
• D2D ... 12/1 : if you went to a bookies and bet £1, you would get £12 if it won (ignoring taxes etc).

So if you get more than that on your sweepstake, it's good news. Actually, if you get anything back, it's good news.

NB do they allow beer bottles, caterpillars and ipods in the GN? Could make it more fun for all rather than just those elites ?

• Mick, I believe some of the  less successful horses end up being made into sports gels .
• ✭✭✭

I think we can add actuary to the list of things D2D will never be.

Good luck in the sweepstake!

x

• DHMD  .. so there's something natural in those gels? That's a relief, I thought they were the just the bits left over after crude oil was made into petrol. (with a bit of colouring and artificial sweetener added)
• Hoof, Berocca, and leftover gunge from Noel's House Party are also popular additions.
• You've got a very good deal there D2D, if you win you'll win twice as much as if you'd gone to the bookies.  Sorry if someone else has explained that.