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Rugby World Cup 2011
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Apart from NZ v Arg I think the others are too close to call.
France are due a good game and can do England over. They are the 6N Grand Slam winners after all.
Wal v Ire - Heart says Wales, head says haven't got a clue. Both can beat Eng/Fra on current form.
Aus v SA - not sure. I think that Aus would have the better chance of beating NZ in the semi but they are both beatable by a NH team if they manage to beat NZ.
I think it's going to be a NZ v WAL/IRE final.
The current odds are:
New Zealand 8/11
South Africa 15/2
Australia 7
England 9
Ireland 12
France 16
Wales 16
Argentina 275
Gertie - England are the reigning 6N champions. France did the slam last year.
I think England will beat France. If home nations raise their game against England, England raise theirs against France and have managed to beat them more than they have lost to them over the past 4 years.
Ireland/Wales will be very close. But I think Ireland will edge it. In the semi, heart says England, head says Ireland. On the other side of the draw, all are capable of beating each other. Apart from Argentina of course.
I'd love to see an England/Australia final, but suspect we'll be watching a NZ/Ireland one.
16-1!!!
We didn't rout Fiji. That would suggest the men in white upped sticks and ran away. No, they didn't. The game I watched still had Fiji looking to score at the death. Unfortunately they couldn't get their heads around the fact they weren't in with much of a chance after 20 mins and they kept kicking their penalties to touch to try to score a try. If they'd have attempted to get any of those over the bar, they wouldn't have been so poorly misrepresented by the scoreline. On the other hand, Wales managed to hold onto and play with the bar of soap, whereas Fiji appeared to be completely undone by it. I couldn't believe some of the handling in that weather!
Still, 16-1... Did nobody think that Wales almost put one over on the present World Champions? Okay, almost isn't good enough. So let's look at recent games. Destroyed one nemesis today, put down another two weeks ago. Came into the competition with the scalps of the No.2 and No.3 teams at the last World Cup. The one thing Wales lacked is confidence, but now I don't think they lack that any more.
But Ireland. Well, they have had a recent run of form, haven't they? Having lost to Wales in the last 6N, and having a fairly poor run up to this competition, they stunned the form team of their group and managed today to turn it on against the wooden spooners and whipping boys of the 6N. Don't forget that Aus won the tri-nations. Of course, that's not a knockout tournament like this one, it's played annually, and unlike the 6N, they play each other twice, so losing once ain't so bad.
So we're coming to crunch time. Lose a game now and it's all over. This is where SA beats the other tri-nations teams because they have the big pack and the stunning kicker. This is where Aus and NZ become afraid to run. This is where the two celtic nations produce a dull, boring game of attrition because they're both too scared to throw the ball around. This is where the territory kickers win you the match. This is where England are good. Not good enough this year for the final, as my money's on the old, experienced, gnarly Ireland getting there. That's where they'll meet SA, and that's the best chance they'll ever have of coming away with the cup. Of course, if Wales beat Ireland, Wales will win the cup. 'nuff said.
(NZ, Carterless, are out in the semi... The 10 channel is going to get mashed.)
Wales/Ireland is tough to call. Will be close. If I wasnt emotionally invested I might tip Wales.
Ireland have done a great job of peaking at the right time and the big players are still fit. Will be interested in the health of the no 2 jersey.
Eng/France
Dont think the managers have done a good job with these two. France would be better off without Lievremont. Suspect that England will get through - although an early try for France might give them some belief.
Aus/SA
SA havent been impressive. Aus to win
NZ/Arg
NZ to win.
Overall think NZ will still win. But the Carter news gives us all some hope...
Wales
France
Australia
NZ
of the first 2 - emotion for Wales natch, and I don't see France playing that badly against England. Australia purely because they are playing better than SA; NZ as the margin between them and the Argies is too big.
without Carter, NZ are still strong in 14 other positions. losing McCaw would be a bigger blow to them as he's the man that gets them rolling and Carter and the other jessies just finish it off.
I can agree with that. If opponents were allowed to pick an opposition player to sit on the bench and not play , it would be McCaw. But as far as I know he is still fit enough to play.
NZ with Carter is quite a better team than NZ without Carter. An NZ team without McCaw and Carter ... be interesting to see how his foot holds up.
and Warburton is starting to become Wales' McCaw - he's having an awesome tournament. the battle between him and O'Brien next weekend is going to be one to savour
I'm going with a NZ v. Ireland final
Everyone keeps going about "unpredictable France" and "they've still got one good game in them" but I think the really unpredictable thing would be for them to carry playing dreadfully and lose to England
In fact I predict a complete meltdown and a fight between their own players. They'll be reduced to 13 men and concede a record number of points. The only thing that saves them from complete humiliation is that JW still can't kick and misses more than he scores. France will cancel their flight home and make them row back. Lievremont will have to join a witness protection scheme to get a new identity.
Australia and SA will batter themselves to death and the winner will limp to the SF and be trounced by NZ.
Wales v. Ireland will be a nervy affair full of reset scrums and forward passes. It will eventually be won in the 79th min by a BOD drop goal and finish 3-0. The SF against England will be a game of free-flowing running rugby and finish 43-42 thanks to a last minute 75M intercept try by POC
5 days to go - v. bored!
Ire v Wal - very close to call - my bet for game of the tournament - i reckon ire might just sneak it but i'd love it to be wales
Fra v Eng - i don't thing england have been playing as badly as everyone has been been making out. anybody who expected them to put a big score over scotland was deluded - the scottish forwards are some of the best in the world in disrupting play and forcing it into an arm-wrestle. France are just in complete disarray- they are capable of a great performance but i cant see it happen - they just want out of there
NZ v Arg - hard to see past the kiwi's on this one - although i reckon the argies will make it an uncomfortable evening for them
SA v AUS - much like the ire/wales game this is very hard to call. the aussies have had the better of the saffa's in recent meetings but the saffa's but a very week team in the 3 nations. The loss of frans steyn will be a big loss in the mid-field - he's been the only back to make decent ground across the gain line consistantly and hos howitser boot has been a central part to the game plan a) in making up territory when needed and b) to put off the opposition offending in the middle of the park as he can put them over from 60/70 meters
For me I'm thinking
Ire v Wal - Ireland will win it but will be a very close and nail bitting game. Wales have quality and a shame the way the group games have worked out because if they had been different this might have been the final.
Fra v Eng - Both teams have problems as far as I can see and arn't yet an conpleate side. The seletion for france has at time been strange while the disipline with england has at times been a problem. I think England will win it but they need to work on things. Didn't get to see the scotland game yet so not got any judgement on that one. Hopefully will be able to watch highlights or the match on I -player at some point. England are playing against the weakest team in the last 8 as far as I can see (sorry Nemo) they need to put in a good shift at the coal face and work out the silly penalties I keep seeing them give away. They won't be able to sort out those problems against Ireland assuming they win who will tear them apart if they can't sort out there heads. I don't think that some of the off-field stuff has any barring on this and thats more about selling newspapers. It might actually help them gel.
NZ v Arg - New Zealand but the south americans will give them problems and make there lives hell. I can remember the game at the past world cup and the score line wasn't reflective off how well Argentina were playing. If NZ switch off at any point in the game they are going to be in for a shock.
SA v AUS - Oz's will win this but like Ireland and wales it's going to be a very close call. also like the first QF game this could easierly be the final.
BDB, if you didn't see the full match then you don't realise that the scoreline wasn't a fair reflection of play. Fiji only wanted to score tries, so didn't take points when they were offered, which might have made some difference to their psyche towards the end of the match. They were unlucky with some efforts, getting turned over more by the slippery rain than anything else. So Wales did have to defend a lot, which was shown in many of the first half statistics, where Fiji had all the territory and possession, but none of the points.
As a reflection of fitness, however, Wales appear (touch wood) to have made it to the quarters with a full squad. Given that they had both Samoa and Fiji to contend with, that statistic looks incredible.
Ireland have to hold the ball in the tight. Regardless of how good Ireland's backs are, they have to be worried about the Welsh backs. Loose ball on either side can be snaffled in the breakdown, as both have back rows that are the envy of other countries, apart from perhaps the now fully fit Kiwis. In the tight and in set pieces Ireland can exhaust Wales and take the game.
I just hope the ball is wet.
that's interesting, I would have said that the wales scrum has been better than the irish scrum for quite some time. The Ireland front row has improved recently, but only to bring them up to the level of being competitive rather than dominating.
Ireland has been very good in this RWC at the breakdown - the loose forwards are playing well and it is clear that all the payers are drilled to get involved - so BOD and Darcy etc act as extra flankers. Also I think this Irish team has rediscovered the Munster ethos of controlling the game by grinding forward. AS FB says till be a heel of a competion with Warburton though
Losing Rory Best would hurt the scrum and possibly also the line out for ireland. Ireland is danger of running out of hookers at this rate. We may yet see the Irish Rugby management wandering down Sherrif Street at 2am waving air tickets to NZ in an effort to find more hookers ...
the Welsh scrum is better than Ireland's now that Gethin Jenkins and Adam Jones are back - they provide a solid cornerstone. I think against Ireland, the Welsh lineout needs to be careful as Ireland do contest this area very well.
whatever, it will be an interesting game!
i reckon it'll be the game of the tournament - cracking entertainment, might not be the try fest both back lines are capable of delivering - but i think for drama and tension it'll be brilliant
yellow card will also be out at some point
Granted the scrums will be close, but I wouldn't be too surprised to see Gethin left on the bench! Neither pack has a world class hooker (anymore). But Paul O'Connell is beyond compare as a pack leader, meaning Ireland should edge it where words speak louder than actions. Wales haven't had a decent lineout for too long. Ireland can maul well and will take the points if Wales bring it down. Ruck formation is where the contest will be in the loose and hence why I figure Ireland should keep that to the tight five, as out on the wings Warburton will get there first.
Apart from the physical, though, Ireland keeping it tight will frustrate a set of highly strung young talents who just want to show how good they are. I've watched in agony as Shane Williams darts forty yards across the pitch looking for a gap then getting mashed and turned over as he runs out of space - and he's an old head! If Ireland keep it tight, the Welsh backs will become more desperate, run crazy lines, and get caught in possession by the Irish back row. In defence they'll try to scrag the ball and cross the line to illegality. Ireland can then kick 15 points to 6...
Anyway, that's what I would do if I was a world renowned coach of an international rugby team.
good...
Oh, please, please, please let it be the Ferris who does the mashing. It'll do his confidence a world of good. O'Brien gets a lot of credit but the whole back row unit is a great supporting cast. I'm a bit worried about Ferris' self-esteem at the moment.
Ferris picking Williams up and driving him back 50 yards. That would be such a great horror movie. Great idea, let's pitch it to Hollywood now!
Havn't been so excited about a match in along time ...
not sure why you're apologising as i think we both made the exact same point !
but i accept
I guess my thinking is that because they are so evenly matched we wont get a great game. That the difference might come down to a missed kick or a refereeing decision. I hope not, but the 'invisible' hands of Neil Back and Thierry Henry have been part of a narrative of being hard done by that we dont give up on easily.
And I wont mention that 'try' last March. I shall be completely silent on that subject.
Is that the Welsh one with the wrong ball?
Controversial!
Wales v Ireland is going to be unmissable and this is one game I'll have to watch live (even though it means getting up at 6am on a Saturday, which will be painful).
I really hope Wales do it, but I fear Ireland will have too much experience in a tight finish (bearing in mind how many Munster and Leinster players have won under pressure in Europe). Our best hope is to go out there and try to run Ireland off their feet and establish a healthy lead early on, but I can see this one coming down to the wire.
The result predicting sheep, Sonny Wool, has spoken (well eaten, actually) too. See linky
I think it's baaaarking mad, but ewe can't tell really.
Shane Williams on. Ronan O'Gara on. I think Gatland thought that Kidney would keep it tight, so he wouldn't need someone who could tackle out on the wing, and then Kidney went with the guy who could decide a close match with his boot, and can keep the pressure on.
Apart from hooker you could select the British Lions from those teams.
Wilkinson at 10, Flood 12? I guess Johnson wanted a creative running back, but forgot that Jonny will stifle that channel. Still can't see England losing to the French, and I find it weird to not be excited about the French at this stage of the competition.
Getting up at 6 after a night on the lash is going to be a bit tough, but I haven't missed a Wales match yet!
EDIT: apologies for the lapse, as of course I meant British and Irish Lions...
Good luck with your early morning, Ratzer
I'm going to tape Wales v. Ireland and watch it an hour or so after it starts. Then I'm off to help at a parkrun so I can completely avoid France v. England. I'm too chicken to watch the match but I'll tape it just in case there's a miracle!
I'll have to tape both matches on Sunday so I can watch them at a decent hour without commentators giving away the score for the first one during the second
Just time for one last
ALLEZ LES BLEUS!!!
before I head off. Good luck to all the teams and let's hope for some cracking matches.
They have played this before and I think while it wasn't the best for flood and made him look slightly less of the player he is it worked quite well. We will see how it goes tomorrow.