Five Year Plan - help please

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  • Tenjiso, went sub 4 first marathon when you posted, sub 3:30 2nd race May last year if you look back a page..



    Got the sub 40 10k, and the sub 1:30 half at end of 2012, so 3rd marathon sub 3:15 target on Sunday.



    Have also done a couple of ultras to keep things interesting..



    We are a similar age too.
  • Tenjiso - great job at Brighton... it sounds like we finished very close to each other.  Your plan is on track...  I am guessing a few of us late 40/early 50's are all aspiring to similar goals, this could be a useful reference thread as the years roll slowly on!

     

  • TenjisoTenjiso ✭✭✭

    Thanks Peter - though perhaps I got a bit carried away with the race report image 

    Choisty - I'm happy with progress since starting this thread.  Shooting high is doing me good!  Hope you achieve a great PB on Sunday.

    FRC - Your progress is fantastic and is great motivation for me to know that my ridiculous goal is not quite so mad after all image. Good luck with your GFA attempt on Sunday and have a great day. Pop back in and let me know how you get on.

    PSC - you crossed the line three minutes ahead of me, so I guess you avoided the embarassment of being beaten by Peppa Pig! I told my 5yo daughter and she explained to me that it wasn't the real Peppa Pig - which was a relief.

    I'm back running again. Yesterday I ran four miles, keeping my heart rate below my recovery ceiling. This is the best I've felt post-marathon, which I'm sure is down to the higher mileage incolved in the P&D plan.  I'll post a few quick stats below for the record.

  • TenjisoTenjiso ✭✭✭

    Here's a quick comparison of my three marathons (apologies for crappy formatting).

    2009 - Training miles: 497m  Five longest runs total: 93m 10k PB: 56:25 HM: 2:02:47 Marathon Result: 4:38:23

    2012 - Training miles: 462m  Five longest runs total: 88m 10k PB: 54:51 HM: 2:01:34 Marathon Result: 4:38:54 (course slightly long due to flooding diverts)

    2013 - Training miles: 751m  Five longest runs total: 100m 10k PB: 49:50 HM: 1:50:04 Marathon Result: 4:09:29

    For my latest campaign I was running five runs per week, averaging 9.3 miles per run January to March inclusive.  I peaked at 22m for the longest run.  Intervals were run slower than I have done previously, which probably helped with injury avoidance.  Also, I ran far more miles outside than I have ever done in the past.  Roughly 30% of my runs were on the treadmill.  I've run in the snow, rain, wind, floods and on trails in the dark with a headtorch - all of which have boosted my experience and confidence.  Getting off the treadmill was a big step, but now I wonder why I didn't do it sooner!

  • TenjisoTenjiso ✭✭✭

    Working out next targets

    I've now completed two weeks of my post-marathon recovery and have only fifty weeks to go until the VLM image. Now is the time to review my stats and flesh-out my targets for the forthcoming campaign. As I've already said, I'm hoping to reach 3:45 for the marathon next year – but what does this mean for my more immediate training and targets? Like most people I turn to the online race predictors to work out what I must achieve at other race distances. But before I place my faith in the results, it makes sense to review how well they have predicted my previous results.

    Starting with the Runner's World Race Time Predictor. This calculator uses the Riegel formula:

    T2 = T1 x (D2/D1)1.06

    where T1 is the given time, D1 is the given distance, D2 is the distance to predict a time for, and T2 is the calculated time for D2.

    According to Runner's World 4:00 Garmin Schedule, I needed to achieve a half-marathon time of 1:50:00 to be able to run a sub-4 hour marathon. This also tied-in with other calculators and tables that I researched. Using this calculator, I had predicted targets of 49:54 for the 10K, 23:56 for the 5K and most importantly 3:49:20 for the marathon.

    My results were 23:32 for 5K, 49:55 for 10K and 1:50:04 for the half-marathon. So that was an impressive thumbs-up for the calculator. On that basis, it should have been a shoe-in to get a sub-4 marathon. However, the actual result of 4:09:29 was apparently sub-par. Indeed, my marathon result has always fallen short of expectations based on results at shorter distances. Last year my half marathon time of 2:01:34 predicted a marathon in 4:13:27, but I dragged my arse home in 4:38:54. So on the face of it, the calculator is great for races up to half-marathon, but way too optimistic for the marathon. All of which has left me in a bit of a quandry about how to set targets for my next marathon, since my results are clearly out of kilter.

    Last week I received an email containing an article by Ian Williams at fetcheveryone.com about marathon time prediction. Here are some condensed extracts:

    Take a look back at the (Riegel) formula. The 1.06 is important - it represents the rate at which we slow down as the races we run get longer. I fed all of my 1071 runners through that formula, and found that only 49 of them managed to hold on to the tails of 1.06 - it was far more common to see a score of 1.15. We know that faster runners tend to be capable of holding on to their pace for longer. So instead of using a constant 1.15, let's connect that number to the speed of the runner, using their half marathon time. I also looked at the differences between male and female performances. Taking these factors on board, I've built a new calculator that will predict your marathon time based on your half marathon. It should predict your time to within 5% in 77 out of a hundred cases.

    The full article can be viewed here.

    Plugging in my most recent half-marathon vs marathon results into this new calculator gave:

    2012 Half Marathon 2:01:34 predicted 4:39:04, against my actual 4:38:54

    2013 Half Marathon 1:50:04 predicted 4:09:16, against my actual 4:09:29

    Pretty outstanding predictions! The bad news for me is that to achieve a 3:45 marathon time, this calculation means that I need to achieve a half marathon in 1:40:29, rather than 1:45:00 that Runner's World suggests in it's Garmin training plan. Nonetheless, I have more faith in the quicker half time.

    (continued.....)

  • TenjisoTenjiso ✭✭✭

     Working out next targets (continued)

    Now, by using the original Riegel formula for 5K and 10K I arrive at two sets of targets which I will be aiming for this year:

    1. 5K 22:50; 10K 47:38; to achieve Half Marathon 1:45:00

    2. 5K 21:51; 10K 45:35; to achieve Half Marathon 1:40:29

    *Since working out these figures, the improved Riegel calculator has been amended to split male/female predictions. While this makes sense if you read the full article, it yields 4:48:35 and 4:15:19 for my last two marathon predictions and is therefore not as close to my actual results (though still better than other calculators). It then calculates a 1:39:09 Half Marathon being the target to achieve a 3:45 marathon. I'm going to stick with the original calculations, since they were uncanny!

    In any case, it looks like I have a lot of work to do! At the moment the targets look daunting, but not unobtainable. I wasn't expecting an easy ride on my “five year” journey. The next twelve months look set to be interesting.

    The improved Reigel calculator can be found here

  • Interesting article Tenjiso. I'd seen the new calculator though.

    I had a half of few seconds under 1:40 for my first marathon and finished in 3:48 so that's pretty close formula.

    5k and 10k times are good for confidence boost but mean nothing prediction wise. It's much more about the endurance and number of 18-20 plus milers I think.

    Ps did VLM last Sunday and ran 3:15:04, almost perfect race.

    Just zoned out for a few minutes or miles and mistimed sprint.

  • TenjisoTenjiso ✭✭✭

    FRC - fabulous time! Congratulations image  That's another brilliant improvement and keeps me motivated too! It's all good.  Also, interesting to note your half-marathon to marathon time too, which gives me added confidence in the numbers.

    My plan is to work on speed during the summer and to race 5k and 10k through to September, then half marathons in October/November before starting marathon training again in December. I've learned my lesson and will increase mileage, or speed - but not both at the same time (pretty sure that's how I got injured last year).

  • That's pretty much what I did last year. No autumn marathon, sort of.

    Speed June/July including Thunder Run, carried on through Aug/Sept, 5-6 tune up short races Sept and also helped a pal train for his first marathon so 2-3 x 18- 20 milers but slow, no recovery, no pressure. October did do an ultra, limited recovery needed.

    November half PB, December 10k PB (cough) with a marathon for fun the day after, to do a none tapered marathon on tired legs, and also to get ready for Feb ultra.

  • TenjisoTenjiso ✭✭✭

    Since running the Brighton Marathon I have been following the final stretch of the P&D marathon training program. This was the five week recovery cycle they call "Mesocycle 5".  My mileage is now back to 35m for a week, and I'm now ready to begin speedwork and work towards a couple of 10k races. 

    Today's run was an 11m medium-long run (MLR). The stats for each mile were:

    HR avg: 128/133/136/140/142/145/146/151/150/152/152bpm (target 135-152bpm)

    Pace: 10:06/9:55/9:35/9:59/10:03/9:23/8:56/8:44/9:09/9:11/9:03

    My MLR training pace range for a 3:45 marathon is 10:18 to 9:27, but I have been running all my runs to heart rate since the marathon (now that I am confident in my heart rate figures). My average pace for the entire run was 9:28, which is the fast end of my training pace range for the target marathon (next spring!). I find this very encouraging.

    I'll continue to use heart rate to judge training paces for Threshold and VO2Max sessions. I'm going to follow the P&D 10K training plan from their book "Road Racing for Serious Runners", though I have a few weeks before I starting the plan (for a September "A" race). I think I'll have a go at another parkrun in the meantime to see what kind of racing shape I'm in.

  • TenjisoTenjiso ✭✭✭

    I ran the parkrun this morning to see how I stand before speed training commences. I completed it in 23:07, which is my new PB by 25 seconds. I was hoping to go sub-23, but am not unhappy with this image. I feel like I'm exactly where I could hope to be prior to starting 10K training and racing.

  • Nice one Tenjiso. 25s off is ace. Only 7 secs for sub 23 is nothing. Fast course it's a gimme.

     

    Congrats.

  • TenjisoTenjiso ✭✭✭

    Thanks Cat/Tiny image

    Onwards and upwards.

  • Its a great way to break marathons down, look at your 5k/10k PB, then how much oxygen/ breathing space you have on that next marathon target.

    Sometimes surprising how comfortable that 10k time looks, yet we have a mental block its impossible or very difficult.

    for sub 4, works out just under 57 min 10k, 28:25 5k, you are currently 49 min 10k and likely lower soon with that 5k, 47-48 mins soon.. Pretty roomy, you have the speed, just need endurance.

    Further down, for 3:30 marathon, maths is simple, 50min 10k, 25min 5ks. and so on.

    Looking good though.

  • TenjisoTenjiso ✭✭✭

    Cheers FRC, though my targets (described previously) are more aggressive because I know I slow down more in a marathon. As you said previously you ran 1:40 half marathon to achieve close to 3:45 marathon, and that is very much in line with where I believe I must achieve. One step at a time, though, and I'm looking forward to trying.

  • TenjisoTenjiso ✭✭✭

    I have officially taken up my place for next years VLM, so everything is going to plan.

    Yesterday I did a trial run of a VO2Max session from my upcoming 10k schedule. I decided to run to heart rate, which at 95-98% would be in the range 174 to 178bpm for each 0.5mile interval. My pace was to be dictated by terrain, but as a guide should be somewhere around 7:13 to 7:21 (3K pace to 5K pace).

    In the event, I only reached 165bpm and felt like I was really pushing it whenever I hit 163bpm image. Bloody garmin was beeping (nagging!) at me constantly to speed up! This has left me somewhat perplexed. I really don't believe that my max heart rate is any less than 181bpm, so I'm certain my target range was in the ball park. My average pace during the intervals was 7:12, which was where I expected to be. I feel sure that, had I pushed on to raise my heart rate to the planned range, I would have blown up spectacularly before completing the full session.

    Looking at my heart rate stats from my recent 5K race, my heart rate quickly raised to around 163bpm, then very gradually increased from about one mile onwards and peaked at 173bpm right at the end. This kinda puts today's figures into perspective, I guess.

    Looking through some HRM articles on Runner's World I found the following comments:

    Interval training is proof that your heart rate monitor has some limitations.

    You cannot usefully use a HRM to pace intervals below 1000m. The figures above 85% are a guide to what you can expect to reach at the end of the repetition.

    I think I will revert to using pace for my next VO2Max session and have another look at the heart rate data afterwards.  

  • Tenjiso, how do you warm up before the 5k and the vo2max tests?

    I'd do a 10-15 minute slow jog, stretches, lunges, along the way. Ideally with 10-15 minutes break before the race.

  • TenjisoTenjiso ✭✭✭

    I did one mile jog with some strides before the 5k race and had about ten minutes remaining before the start. Before my first VO2max rep, I usually jog a couple of miles. I know that my heart rate readings can be all over the place if I don't take it slow and easy for the first mile.

    In addition, I review the heart rate data using garmin connect. That way I can see if there are any spikes in the readings that can be ignored.

  • Sounds fine but that time for hr to drop can vary by person, even if you just walk it stays high.

    Also can vary due to other things, coffee screws my hr, can remember one 9 mile run at 9-10 min miles with Mrs FRC at 170 bpm. Never dropped, coffee was 5 hours before. I drink very little coffee now image

    Had you taken anything, coffee, gels, other foods? Also other factors, time of day, how tired you were, busy at work. All affect your hr and fatigue level.

    Its not a guaranteed hr 220 - age. I can still get into 190s doing intervals and circuits.

    Will see what my HR is next time we do interval or 0.5m.

  • TenjisoTenjiso ✭✭✭

    I'm pretty happy that I'm in the right area for my max heart rate. I thought I had posted my earlier thoughts in this thread, but it seems not. If I can find it, I'll pop it in here, which might help my figures make sense (or not image). Long story short....I previously thought my max was 191, but I believe it was based on erroneous readings. My current figure of 181 has more solid evidence.

  • TenjisoTenjiso ✭✭✭

    I ran a 10K race at the weekend and have a new PB of 49:08. This was slower than I had hoped for, but it is not the "A" race I'm preparing for (which is another 10K race in seven weeks time). Hopefully it will be a bit cooler image.

  • Congrats on your PB!  It might not have been what you were hoping for, but everything's heading in the right direction, well done!

  • TenjisoTenjiso ✭✭✭

    Thanks Tiny.

    In my training, I'm now placing the emphasis on pace for the hard sessions, rather than heart rate. I'll continue to use the HRM to stop me from working too hard on recovery days.

    I have six weeks remaining to prepare for my next 10k race. I've also scheduled a couple of 5k tune-up races this month. I'm in two minds whether to train for a half-marathon in the Autumn, or stick to speed work (not that they are mutually exclusive, or anything like that image).

  • To paraphrase the saying... if I didn't have shit luck, I wouldn't have any luck at all image

    In the middle of August I was struck by a virus that laid me up in bed for a week and culminated in hospitalisation on the drip. During my prolonged recovery from that, I stubbed my toe and fractured it, then subsequently antagonised the injury while lifting some heavy furniture. The upshot was almost two months with no running at all image

    I didn't wait for the fracture to completely heal and tentatively began running short distances in October. Needless to say my fitness had dived. I ran primarily on the treadmill to avoid problems with the injury. That way, there would be no obstacles and I could stop at any time I felt pain (in theory, at least image). I avoided speedwork and inclines, so the running didn't make the toe injury any worse.

    Over the last five weeks, I've gradually built back up to 28 miles last week with a "long" run of 10 miles. I'm on target to have sufficient endurance to begin marathon training in just under five weeks. My speed-endurance is currently not where it was this time last year, but I'm hoping I can overcome that with some intelligent training.

    I'm planning to base my marathon training on the P&D 18/55 schedule once again, since that was very successful for me this year. I'll be training for the VLM in April, with the Silverstone Half-Marathon booked as part of my preparation in March.

    Having the long-term target (A.K.A. 5 Year Plan) has definitely helped my focus, at a time when it would have been easy to say "screw-it". I've had some set-backs, but that's all they are, i.e. "set-backs" and not "showstoppers".

  • Hi Tenjiso - that's a shame but some time being laid up is inevitable - shame they all came at once! The fitness will come back soon enough. I'm just recovering from nearly 3.5 years of an inconvenient set back! I suspect my fitness make take some time to recover.. Hoping to get back to training before the middle of next year. Good luck with your training!

  • That's some inconvenience, Peter! Good luck with the comeback, and thanks for the sentiments.

  • TenjisoTenjiso ✭✭✭

    I've just remembered, it's about time I checked-in...

    Running hasn't been easy.

    Tragic family circumstances have meant that since mid-November I have been juggling life as a (thankfully, temporary) single parent with stress levels through the roof, rapidly diminishing savings and next to no income. However, if ever there was a time to maintain running it was now. It gives me some structure and positive focus.

    I managed to get my base level of running up sufficiently to be able to start the P&D 18 week up to 55m p/w marathon plan, and so far I have kept up with the training (this is week six of the program). I'm having to do a lot more home treadmill training to be able to keep an eye on the kids. My mum has been watching them for me on Sundays, so that I can get outside on my long runs (plus, it gives me a rest from cooking all the meals image).

    I'm targeting a sub-4:00 marathon at the VMLM. My training runs and heart rate monitoring are at paces suggested for a 3:50 marathon, which is good because I have a tendency to fade in the latter stages. I'll get a better idea what is possible when I run the Silverstone half-marathon in March.

    Next week will be my first 50 mile week of the campaign, with a long run of 18 miles.

    If nothing else, it keeps me off the pills!

  • TenjisoTenjiso ✭✭✭

    I've been meaning to update this thread for ages, but life has been getting in the way. The good news is that 2014 is on a serious upwards trend after a truly dreadful 2013. My wife returned home in February which meant that I no longer had sole care of our children. I began to look for my next job and was fortunate to secure a position within a couple of weeks of searching. That was a major relief! 

    Throughout all my problems, I've managed to stick to the vast majority of the P&D up to 55m schedule. It has been stressful juggling a new job, studying with the Open University and keeping up with a demanding running schedule. It's never been easy, but as they say - where there's a will there's a way.

    I ran the Silverstone Half Marathon to assess whether my target sub-4:00 marathon would be achievable. In spite of my own doubts, I managed 1:45:51 which was a PB by just over four minutes and was just where I wanted to be. I then followed this up with a 5km parkrun of 22:11 which lopped a hefty 53 seconds off my previous best. Finally, I ran the Oakley 20 as a training run starting out at 10:10 pace, then gradually increasing speed to just under 9:30 pace, with enough energy to run the final couple of miles at sub 8:00 pace. It was a PB 3:08:16, though the time was unimportant in this instance.

    All-in-all things were on target for my sub-4:00 attempt at London. Using Jack Daniels VDOT tables, and knowing how I normally convert as I go up in distance I knew I would be wise not to suffer from goal creep. My plan was to run close to 9:00 pacing and see how I felt after 20 miles. I was all too painfully aware how the wheels fall off in the latter stages image.

  • TenjisoTenjiso ✭✭✭

    2014 VMLM Race Report

    I began carb loading on Thursday with a daily target of 10g per Kilo of bodyweight = 720g with carbs making up 70% of daily calories. My daily totals were:

    • Thursday: 680g (65%) 

    • Friday: 716g (73%)

    • Saturday: 722g (72%)

    Probably way too many simple sugars, but at least it was an attempt to round-off preparations. On Saturday night I hadn't pre-planned and I couldn't find an Italian restaurant. So I went for Pot Noodle, rather than walk around too much image I had picked up my pack at the Expo on Saturday morning, and made my way to the Deptford Bridge Travelodge. Having arrived early I coughed up an extra tenner so I could rest up as much as possible.

    I didn't sleep at all well Saturday night, though I didn't feel too bad when my alarm went off at 6:00am. Those who followed my progress for Brighton last year might remember I had four poo's on the race morning (a PPB). Well, this year I had poo's at 6:15, 6:45, 7:30 and finally 8:15! I suppose this is the carb-unloading process. I did give it one more shot just before the race, but failed to make a new PPB. Needless to say I took some immodium to be on the safe side during the race. I stopped drinking just over an hour before the race so that I wouldn't want to stop for a pee.

    My eight Sis Go Gels were decanted into three small running bottles on my race belt, which made taking them sooo much easier than trying to open the damn packets on the run. After feeling sick in the latter stages at Brighton, and reading in the P&D thread how Agent Ginger had fuelled, I didn't take a pre-race gel this year. I consumed my first one just after 5m, then at 3m intervals until the final one at 23m, leaving one spare one I didn't use. I had no gastric problems at all following this routine. Being a fairly warm day I drank regular small amounts of water. Occasionally pouring some over my head and neck, or soaking my cap to feel cooler under the glorious sunshine.

    The crowding and bunching of runners in the first couple of miles meant that it wasn't possible to take advantage of the early slight decline on the course. Though I wasn't unhappy with splits of 9:03 and 9:07. Space opened up more in the third mile and I put in an 8:34 at the same effort level.

    Somewhere around seven miles I tripped and twinged the muscle in the back of my right knee which I have injured in the past. This was a worry, but thankfully didn't amount to anything and didn't trouble me after a couple of miles of cautious running.

    Among the “sights”, I only actually noticed the Cutty Sark, Tower Bridge and Big Ben. My overriding memory, that I will dream about for many years to come, will be the blue line image The crowds were incredible. I realised how noisy it was when we went under the tunnels and it went quiet before emerging back out into the cacophony. In spite of this, I maintained focus and concentrated on my plan. I wanted to achieve sub 4:00. There was no “B” plan.

    I went through halfway in 1:57:44. I was pleased with my pacing, but also a little concerned because historically I have always faded significantly in the second half. But I felt good. Better than in Brighton and definitely stronger. Although it took a little more effort from sixteen miles, I was still maintaining sub-four hour splits 9:09, 9:08, 9:02, 9:06, 9:06, 9:09. My average pace at 21m was 9:00, and I knew I could do it as long as I kept control.

    cont...</

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