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I'm really struggling trying to work out what my target marathon pace should be. My PB on the half marathon is just under 1 hour 37 (set at the recent Edinburgh Rock and Roll half). The run predictor says that equates to a 3 hour 20 marathon.
For the recent Edinburgh marathon I trained to the 16 week 3 hour 30 Runnersworld training program (and found it fine). For the marathon I kept to 7:50 min mile pace and my HR below 160 (80% of max) for the first half. However my pace started to slow from the half and then really drag from the 18th mile. Miles 22 to 25 slowed down to a walk/run. I came in around 4:04. I felt wiped out afterwards but didn't actually feel that sore the day afterwards.
Here is my Garmin record of it: http://connect.garmin.com/activity/182735758
Obviously Edinburgh was fairly hot. So I'm trying to work out whether I went out too fast or was it the heat?
What pace should I target early in the race to have a better finish? Thanks!