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I'll be attempting my first 50 mile run this weekend, and like the title says, I'm looking for some pacing advice. I've done a couple of ultras before now - 33 miles on roads and gravel paths which I got on fine with, and 40 miles offroad on a rather hilly course, which I really struggled with, probably because it was pretty much my first attempt at offroad running. The 50 miler will be all on road, and apart from a couple of minor inclines is practically pancake flat.
To give some idea of what speed I'm going at, my last (mostly road) marathon time (2 weeks ago) was 4:17. Was running at an average of 9:23 min miles, aiming for 4:05-ish and feeling very comfortable till my knee fell apart at 20 miles. Definitely didn't run out of steam or 'hit the wall' or anything like that.
Anyway, I put 4:17 into the McMillan pace calculator thingy and for 50 miles it gives me a pace of 11:26. If I put in 4:05 (which without the sudden injury I'm certain I could have achieved), it gives me a pace of 10:52.
Firstly, is it sensible to base my pace on an online calculator? Secondly which pace should I be aiming for, the slower or the faster one? Any and all advice and personal experiences will be very gratefully received. Thanks in advance!