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I've been lucky in the VLM ballot and I have read numerous threads where people are asking if they can run sub-3 on their first marathon. Equally I read with great amusement the sarcastic responses made by experienced runners that were 'tickled' by a newbies naivety at what it takes to accomplish such a feat. However, I'm not sure if I am just as naive or whether I have a fighting chance as I wouldn't consider myself a begginer and conversely I'm certainly not close to being elite.
I'm male aged 26, ran for a running club in my youth from 14 until about 16 including representing my district at cross-country. After rediscovering the sport after a ten year absence I've now been running for about 5months and I have a 5k PB of 19:10, 10k PB of 39:47 from running two or three times a week. I plan to shift most of my training focus now onto aerobic slower running although if possible I enjoy Tuesday track sessions at my local club and would like to keep that in my schedule. I'm hoping to gradually build my weekly mileage up to 40 in the twelve weeks between now and christmas. Between christmas and the race I'll have a decent mileage under my belt to start a marathon training plan.
So taking this life story (sorry) into account, do I have a decent shot at running a marathon in under 3hours in late April next year or shall I hide under a rock while people much quicker than I point and laugh at me for even suggesting it? All opinions and relevant anecdotes are appreciated.