Eastleigh By-election

Eastleigh By-election is today, who do you think will win and by how much?

Most papers (and polls) think it wil be a narrow victory for the Lib Dems with the Tories 2nd and UKIP 3rd. Although this article in The Telegraph suggests UKIP could finish 2nd.

What do you think the fall out will be? If the Lib Dems lose the seat is Clegg out as leader? If UKIP poll strongly is Cameron likely to face a leadership challenge?

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Comments

  • DustinDustin ✭✭✭

    Lib Dems win, Tories second, UKIP third.
    I'd quite like to see UKIP do well (in general), just so that we can ascertain their economic policies. Tax cuts for everyone, increase public sector prodcutivity but without increased spending, establishing a million new jobs via lower taxation (yes but what effect would the 'new' local tax have on the overall tax picture?) At least they recognise the need to reduce public sector bloatedness and an unsustainable national debt, so with that they are following the lead of the current coalition.

  • Ye gods. UKIP are polite middle-England racists who elected the charming Nigel Farage as a cover for their vile policies on immigration and crime. I sincerely hope they don't become a force for anything.

  • Someone will win. Nothing will change.

  • DustinDustin ✭✭✭

    Peter - I wasn't promoting them at all (if you thought I was).
    My post, on reflection, wasn't clear. They don't have a viable economic policy: tax cuts, increased productivity, deficit reduction, but by my reckoning no way of paying for it. So a little boost at the polls will drop them in the spotlight so that we can see how brittle they are on wider issues.

  • Tom you were wrong.

     tories pushed into 3rd.but its ok as they have dismissed as a protest vote.........

    not sure why a protest vote is unimportant image

  • Peter Collins wrote (see)

    Ye gods. UKIP are polite middle-England racists who elected the charming Nigel Farage as a cover for their vile policies on immigration and crime. I sincerely hope they don't become a force for anything.

    As a matter of interest what policies are they?

  • Eggyh73Eggyh73 ✭✭✭

    UKIP are a sad little party for xenophobes, racists and bigots and pretty much all by election results mean nothing. They never transmit to what happens in a general election.

    Come the general election we'll be back to a straight fight between dumb and dumber.

  • Same question, I am not really interested in Politics but I would like to see how their policies on Immigration and Crime can be so obnoxious.

  • I just read up on UKIP crime policy - Victims rights in preference to criminals. The easier deportation of foreign criminals. Life to mean life. No plea bargain for Rapists, Murder or paedophiles. Three strikes policy for minor crimes. Rebalance the law in favour of householder/intruder. This is very interesting and not vile, what am I missing or are people just repeating what the papers tell them  

  • DustinDustin ✭✭✭

    In brief:
    Immigration
    - stop uncontrolled immigration, freeze on immigration for permanent settlement
    - Leave EU to ensure tighter border control (work permits, points based like Australia)
    - Holding centre for asylum seekers
    - Benefits only available to UK citizens (5 year residency)
    - Visas required with conditions (health cover etc.)
    Crime
    - zero tolerance
    - more police on the streets
    - abolish CPS
    - harsher penalties for re-offenders and more prisons (so that sentences can be carried out in full)
    - greater emphasis on rehabilitation
    - deport foreign criminals
    - Dismiss European court of human rights

    make your own mind up...

  • EKGO in the minds of the left leaning people, anyone who question mass imigration is a racist. Its how the try to stifle reasonable debate by screaming the race card.

  • Some of my favourite things are races! image

  • Eggyh73Eggyh73 ✭✭✭

    Depends if you are an extreme right wing human rights hating libertarian type or not. It's basically a manifesto for the rich white western man claiming that he is persecuted by liberals, or in other words it appeals to morons.

    Homophobic, like most UK political parties in being firmly against gay marriage. Leaving the EU, in which they are dumb enough to think would have no trade or tourism impact. Tripling the number of border control staff, which is going to be great as you've screwed EU trade and plan to reduce corporate tax and abolish inheritance tax (yeah rich whiteys!). A complete five year freeze on immigration, based on nothing other than good old fashioned xenophobia. Anyone not a UK national and living here since before 2004 (EU citizens) to be deported, nothing at all xenophobic in that at all! Asylum detention centres. Repeal the 1998 Human rights act, you always know you're on the right course when you start overturning Human Rights Acts! End the active promotion of the doctrine of multiculturalism by local and national government and all publicly funded bodies (their actual words), give me a X, give me a E, give me a N... Abolishing the higher tax rates for higher earners, go rich whitey. Oh and EKGO that isn't putting things in balance for victims rights. It's almost police state rhetoric.

    I feel so sorry for all these white British folk born in a rich country with every opportunity and advantage at their disposal. Remember if you are failing it's due to those nasty foreigners and asylum seekers.

  • EKGO wrote (see)

    I just read up on UKIP crime policy - Victims rights in preference to criminals. The easier deportation of foreign criminals. Life to mean life. No plea bargain for Rapists, Murder or paedophiles. Three strikes policy for minor crimes. Rebalance the law in favour of householder/intruder. This is very interesting and not vile, what am I missing or are people just repeating what the papers tell them  

    We don't have plea bargaining in this country. Do they mean no right to parole? Or no reduced sentences? Or no right to appeal? I doubt many people would disagree with the first two but the third opens up a big can of worms. 

  • Eggyh73 wrote (see)

    Depends if you are an extreme right wing human rights hating libertarian type or not. It's basically a manifesto for the rich white western man claiming that he is persecuted by liberals, or in other words it appeals to morons.

    Homophobic, like most UK political parties in being firmly against gay marriage. Leaving the EU, in which they are dumb enough to think would have no trade or tourism impact. Tripling the number of border control staff, which is going to be great as you've screwed EU trade and plan to reduce corporate tax and abolish inheritance tax (yeah rich whiteys!). A complete five year freeze on immigration, based on nothing other than good old fashioned xenophobia. Anyone not a UK national and living here since before 2004 (EU citizens) to be deported, nothing at all xenophobic in that at all! Asylum detention centres. Repeal the 1998 Human rights act, you always know you're on the right course when you start overturning Human Rights Acts! End the active promotion of the doctrine of multiculturalism by local and national government and all publicly funded bodies (their actual words), give me a X, give me a E, give me a N... Abolishing the higher tax rates for higher earners, go rich whitey. Oh and EKGO that isn't putting things in balance for victims rights. It's almost police state rhetoric.

    I feel so sorry for all these white British folk born in a rich country with every opportunity and advantage at their disposal. Remember if you are failing it's due to those nasty foreigners and asylum seekers.

    Ok... No need for the hard sell! image

    Out of curiosity, if you use comment in bold replacing the word 'whiteys' with 'blackeys' is it still acceptable to use?

  • UKIP Policies

    Or there's a summary in The Guardian if you don't fancy trawling through all that.

  • Eggyh73Eggyh73 ✭✭✭

    If you want. I just love the irony of white people from a rich western country basically made what it is on the back of colonialism, persecution of others and slavery claiming that they are hard done by.

    Add to that that the financial impact of asylum seekers and immigration is a mere dribble compared to corporation tax avoidance. The human race never seems to learn. Blame the poor and the weakest in society for the problems caused by the rich and the powerful. They must laugh at the stupidity of so many.

  • Eggyh73 wrote (see)

    Depends if you are an extreme right wing human rights hating libertarian type or not. It's basically a manifesto for the rich white western man claiming that he is persecuted by liberals, or in other words it appeals to morons.

    Homophobic, like most UK political parties in being firmly against gay marriage. Leaving the EU, in which they are dumb enough to think would have no trade or tourism impact. Tripling the number of border control staff, which is going to be great as you've screwed EU trade and plan to reduce corporate tax and abolish inheritance tax (yeah rich whiteys!). A complete five year freeze on immigration, based on nothing other than good old fashioned xenophobia. Anyone not a UK national and living here since before 2004 (EU citizens) to be deported, nothing at all xenophobic in that at all! Asylum detention centres. Repeal the 1998 Human rights act, you always know you're on the right course when you start overturning Human Rights Acts! End the active promotion of the doctrine of multiculturalism by local and national government and all publicly funded bodies (their actual words), give me a X, give me a E, give me a N... Abolishing the higher tax rates for higher earners, go rich whitey. Oh and EKGO that isn't putting things in balance for victims rights. It's almost police state rhetoric.

    I feel so sorry for all these white British folk born in a rich country with every opportunity and advantage at their disposal. Remember if you are failing it's due to those nasty foreigners and asylum seekers.

    I am sensing alot of anger in that post, chill man its Fridayimage

  • OK so having trawled through, it's about making sure sentences reflect the crime and that life means life.

     

  • Eggyh73Eggyh73 ✭✭✭

    When it comes to politics I'm never chilled. The older I get, the angrier I get about the exploitation and persecution of the weakest in society.

  • Screamapillar wrote (see)
    We don't have plea bargaining in this country. Do they mean no right to parole? Or no reduced sentences? Or no right to appeal? I doubt many people would disagree with the first two but the third opens up a big can of worms. 

    Have a read of this - The acceptance of pleas and the prosecutor's role in the sentencing exercise.

    Also, a guilty plea would usually get you a reduced sentence (typically 1/3 off if you plead guilty at the earliest opportunity).

  • I asked a simple question, and some of the replies resort to insults you have effectively lost your right to reasonable comment when this happens.

    I noted the removal of the Human rights act, and there are benefits to those in Countries that pay lip service but to an advanced political set-up such as the UK it is immaterial and only gives those with a reason to hide, something to hide behind.

    Everything else I can't see why reasonable people would see anything abhorrent 

    Tommygun2 wrote (see)

    EKGO in the minds of the left leaning people, anyone who question mass imigration is a racist. Its how the try to stifle reasonable debate by screaming the race card.

    Totally agree with this one and above comments are an example, you either agree with me or you're a bigot, racist or right winger etc. It's totally the wrong way to advocate tolerance, actually laughable.

  • Yes that's common, it's not the same as the American system of plea bargaining. You get credit for pleading guilty because it saves time and money - it's pretty annoying but it makes economic sense.

    It also depends on the severity of the offence. It doesn't often in happen in the case of serious crime. It's why murderers and rapists with overwhelming evidence against them like Mark Dixie and Steve Wright plead not guilty - it's because they have nothing to gain by pleading guilty.

    Certainly if you do away with it the costs will spiral both in terms of trial and jail costs.

     

  • EKGO wrote (see)
    Peter Collins wrote (see)

    Ye gods. UKIP are polite middle-England racists who elected the charming Nigel Farage as a cover for their vile policies on immigration and crime. I sincerely hope they don't become a force for anything.

    As a matter of interest what policies are they?

    I would say that judging by what they put on the doorstep in Eastleigh, scaremongering about 'waves' of immigration that haven't happened yet from countries that send a shiver up the spines of LIttle Englanders - Romania and Bulgaria. Pretty sordid, in my opinion.

  • Eggyh73 wrote (see)

    When it comes to politics I'm never chilled. The older I get, the angrier I get about the exploitation and persecution of the weakest in society.

    Me too, mate. Since time immemorial the poorest have been blamed for their own plight, even as the most basic support is taken away from them. I hate to sound like an old lefty, but the problems this country faces are simply crises of modern capitalism, nothing to do with too much state spending. The Ourselves Alone twats of Ukip would not be able to solve that any more than the mad tinkering of either the Tories or Labour. We're all doomed whoever gets in, frankly, because they won't get to grips with the real problem, which is distribution of wealth and its use for all - something Labour used to have enshrined in its values.

  • Yep, I think that just about sums it up Peter.

    None of them want to do what the electorate wants it to do - stop fleecing it.  I'm prepared to vote for anyone that promises to renationalise transport and utilities. If no-one does, I probably be spoiling my ballot paper at the next election.

  • DustinDustin ✭✭✭

    "nothing to do with too much state spending" - really???
    The real problem at present isn't the redistribution of wealth, its clawing back the ridiculous overspend of the past few decades. All parties need to wake up to the fact that we can't fund social care, education and pensions etc. for a population that continues to live longer and longer without paying for it.
    Parties of all colours dress up a rosy picture based on forecasts of over exaggerated growth, which isn't happening, in fact UK productivity by worker is falling (probably because we're all on forums, facebook and twitter!)
    I suppose we could call it the redistibution of debt.
    Obviously policies that advocate longer working lives, pension (& health?) contributions and fee based education , coupled with local taxes and higher income taxes aren't going to prove too popular. And so the debt grows....

  • Peter Collins wrote (see)
    EKGO wrote (see)
    Peter Collins wrote (see)

    Ye gods. UKIP are polite middle-England racists who elected the charming Nigel Farage as a cover for their vile policies on immigration and crime. I sincerely hope they don't become a force for anything.

    As a matter of interest what policies are they?

    I would say that judging by what they put on the doorstep in Eastleigh, scaremongering about 'waves' of immigration that haven't happened yet from countries that send a shiver up the spines of LIttle Englanders - Romania and Bulgaria. Pretty sordid, in my opinion.

    So it's fair to say you don't know, and the fact that our borders and social security system are to be opened to 29 million Romanian and Bulgarian in the new year is to be simply overlooked?

    Example in 2004 the government predicted 15,000 additional Polish would settle in the UK so we had nothing to worry about, the fgure at the 2011 census went from 75,000 in 2003 to 521,000 in 2011, regardless of individual politics wouldn't you, as a right minded person think it appropriate that this should opened up for public discussion?

  • Do you mean benefit scroungers Nick?

    I dredged up some statistic the other week, in a similar debate,  about how benefit scrougers, as abhorrent as they are, cost the country a fraction of what the banking crisis cost it.

    It doesn't matter though. You continue falling for the bullsh*t that they are to blame for all the country's ills. Everything will be fine.

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