VLM - 12th rejection today in 12 ballot entries...

...any one else this unlucky?!

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Comments

  • My last 10 have been rejections, so you've beaten me!

  • Count yourself luck you don't have to run a marathon!image

  • I'm sure the FLM/VLM only stopped the 5 rejections = automatic place about 3 years ago so how can either of you have so many consecutive rejections?

  • they must have had gaps in the ballot places...........this was the very last year for anyone to get the 5 rejections and an automatic place...........

  • I have 3 rejection magazines delivered today.........anyone got a higher stack image

     

  • Not sure how this has worked - if Stephen R has had 10 rejections on the spin he would certainly have qualified with the automatic place.

  • You're right Screamapillar, but they weren't consecutive rejections.

    2000-2004 inclusive - reject!

    2005 I got in under the 5 times rejection rule (and ran it)

    2006-2010 inclusive - reject!

    2011 - again in under the 5 times rejection rule (having a baby then ruled me out of running so I deferred entry until 2012 - plantar facitis struck so I couldn't run)

    2013-2014 inclusive - REJECT!

    Some years I've donated my entry fee, some years I haven't.  Nothing seems to make a difference, I just never get picked out of the ballot.  I was curious whether anyone else had such a run of bad luck.  At some point, statistically, surely I should get lucky??

  • Peter Collins wrote (see)

    Count yourself luck you don't have to run a marathon!image

    I like your thinking!!

  • My first received today! So if I get 5 rejections in a row, I should still make it before my official retirement age.

  • I've entered the ballot for the first time this year, and I have a good feeling about it...

    However, even if I get in, I can't do it anyway, as I have another event planned.

     

  • Lady PB........I first enetered for 2006 and haven't been successful once..just ran it twice ....once through a running club place..and once through the 5 rejection rule............

    I did get picked a different year for my running club place but put my name back as my hubby got the other place and we both couldn't run.........so neither of us have ever got a ballot place......

  • Grendel3 wrote (see)

    Not sure how this has worked - if Stephen R has had 10 rejections on the spin he would certainly have qualified with the automatic place.

    You're quite right Grendel.  The last time I won a ballot place was for the 2003 race. Got rejected 2004-8 so that earned me a five-strikes-and-you're-in place for 2009.  Have now got rejections for 2010-4, which would have got me a 5-strikes place for 2015 had the scheme not finished with the 2014 event!  Most annoying.
  • LadyPB wrote (see)
    Peter Collins wrote (see)
    Count yourself luck you don't have to run a marathon!image

    I like your thinking!!

    I know people who celebrate like mad every time they get a London Marathon rejection magazine.

  • I got 2 You're in magazines today.  I originally applied for a ballot place and then realised because I hit a significant birthday after Xmas I could apply for GFA, so did, and just forgot to cancel the ballot.  

    I have cancelled it today so there is another place going back in the bag.

    Perhaps a streak of luck about to beginimage

  • Has anyone found out they have got in and they did not bequeth their money?

  • Hmmm wonder if our magazines will have arrived today...............?!?!?!?

  • Have no doubt I will not get in, but having run it 7 times and dropped out at half way once I suppose I am priviliged to have run it as many times as I have - last run it in 1998 - haven't tried many times since then to get a place - so I only really entered this year on spec - I have already got an entry for the Kent marathon although may abandon it for the Halstead marathon instead - my only goal is to plod round and enjoy it with my only target to finish within 2 hours of my PB.

  • CliveS wrote (see)

    My first received today! So if I get 5 rejections in a row, I should still make it before my official retirement age.

     

    Clive, they stopped the count on the five rejection thing a couple of years ago.  

    It's only available for people who were nearly there when they stopped it.

  • what a surprise I am not in now to look for a marathon any ideals

  • It's my 5th rejection in a row. I am pretty sure that th '5' in a row limit finished last year, so if you hadn't clocked up 5 by then it doesn't matter how many more you get now, you won't automatically get in. Pretty sure that's the case - If I had applied a year earlier then I would have been able to get in on the 5 rejection scheme.

    Mind you, having experienced this so often and with what I believe to be 'only one marathon in me' and my age, I entered Brighton earlier in the year as back up. Looks like I'll never get to do London, but will at least have Brighton to my name.

  • It's a bit like throwing a dice 12 times and never rolling a 6. Quite feasible. You next "throw" will still be 1 chance in 6

  • Yep its called the Monte Carlo fallacy or something Sussex Runner NLR image . As the previous 12 have already happened it doesn't affect at all your chances next year

  • Boring probability lesson, while I wait to go home and check todays post.*

    Lets imagine the odds for each entry are 1 in 5 (as is commonly suggested).

    On your first entry the calculation is simple.

    1 in 5 = 0.2 or a 20% chance.

    On your second entry you don't add your "20%"s together to give 40% (because that would guarantee a place after 5 entries which is wrong).  And you don't multiply the 0.2 values (because that would lower the probability which is wrong).  We multiply probabilities when we want the probability of x and y happening.  0.2 * 0.2 gives the probability of getting a place in year 1 and in year 2 (4%).  Instead you can think about it like this.  What are the odds of not getting a place in year 1 and not getting a place in year 2? 4/5 * 4/5 = 16/25 = 64% . So the odds of getting a place at least once in either of the two years of entry are the opposite of that, 36% (because the probability of getting a place plus not getting a place has to add up to 100%).

    So after 1 entry your chance of getting a place is: 1-(4/5)=0.2=20%

    After 2 entries: 1-(4/5*4/5)=36%

    After 3 entries: 1-(4/5*4/5*4/5)=49%

    4 entries: 59%

    5 entries: 67%

    6 entries: 74%

    7 entries: 79%

    8 entries: 83%

    9 entries: 87%

    10 entries: 89%

    So (again, assuming it is about 1 in 5 each time) after 10 entries, the chance that you were successful at least once is 89%.  After 12 entries you had a 93% chance of being successful at least once, or a 7% chance of STILL not getting a place, about 1 in 15.

    But of course you're never guaranteed a place even after 100 entries.  And, perhaps confusingly, even after 9 fails (or 99 fails), the chance on the 10th time (or the 100th time) is still 1 in 5 or 20% (like Sussex Runner NLR says).  The unlikely thing has already happened by then (as Keith says).

    * although I bequeathed so I'll probably have to wait a bit longer...

  • Apologies to anyone who is already intimate with stats or for any mistakes in th above. image

  • and the chances are way less than 1 in 5........i think its probably less than 1 in 10

  • I'm in. Had 5 rejections so this is year 6 and last chance to do 5 and in. I've done other marathons instead to keep me busy image
  •  have been lucky I suppose and have done it 4 times in 5 years. The first time was brilliant but after the first its not the same. I have done Jersey twice Brighton Loch Ness and am doing Berlin next year and booked up already. Hope you all get in eventually but I enjoyed the other marathons as much and dare I say more? 

     

  • Tarantula wrote (see)

    Boring probability lesson, while I wait to go home and check todays post.*

    Lets imagine the odds for each entry are 1 in 5 (as is commonly suggested). On your first entry the calculation is simple. 1 in 5 = 0.2 or a 20% chance. On your second entry you don't add your "20%"s together to give 40% (because that would guarantee a place after 5 entries which is wrong).  And you don't multiply the 0.2 values (because that would lower the probability which is wrong).  We multiply probabilities when we want the probability of x and y happening.  0.2 * 0.2 gives the probability of getting a place in year 1 and in year 2 (4%).  Instead you can think about it like this.  What are the odds of not getting a place in year 1 and not getting a place in year 2? 4/5 * 4/5 = 16/25 = 64% . So the odds of getting a place at least once in either of the two years of entry are the opposite of that, 36% (because the probability of getting a place plus not getting a place has to add up to 100%). So after 1 entry your chance of getting a place is: 1-(4/5)=0.2=20% After 2 entries: 1-(4/5*4/5)=36% After 3 entries: 1-(4/5*4/5*4/5)=49% 4 entries: 59% 5 entries: 67% 6 entries: 74% 7 entries: 79% 8 entries: 83% 9 entries: 87% 10 entries: 89% So (again, assuming it is about 1 in 5 each time) after 10 entries, the chance that you were successful at least once is 89%.  After 12 entries you had a 93% chance of being successful at least once, or a 7% chance of STILL not getting a place, about 1 in 15. But of course you're never guaranteed a place even after 100 entries.  And, perhaps confusingly, even after 9 fails (or 99 fails), the chance on the 10th time (or the 100th time) is still 1 in 5 or 20% (like Sussex Runner NLR says).  The unlikely thing has already happened by then (as Keith says). * although I bequeathed so I'll probably have to wait a bit longer...

    I love this!  

    Congratulations to  all who have managed to get a place.  I'll apply again next year and cross my fingers and hope!  So see you next year with my 13th rejection!!image

  • I got my 5th rejection in a row yesterday, I last ran it in 1994 & really fancied another crack at it but unless I can get a club place (a possibilty) I won't be doing it again, I'll find another one. I really don't believe it's 1 in 4 chance of getting in, the ballot stopped at 160,000, they accept close to 40,000. This figure doesn't include all of the thousands of charity places, I would love to know what the real chances of getting in via the ballot are.

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