Hiya,
Just wondering what people think is the most accurate way of predicting performance at different distances based on a reference race..
There are lots of predictors on the web... But do I trust them..
[ Trying to convert from 10K reference race to expected marathon time.]
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IMHO though it's far better to use a 1/2M time to convert to expected marathon time. You wouldn't be far wrong if you doubled 1/2M time and added on 15 mins.
They could never be 100% accurate obviously because of variations between courses, fitness fluctuations, course congestion etc etc.
I think the greater the extrapolation, the more salt you should take with them, eg predicting a half-marathon time from a 5k should be treated with more scepticism than a marathon time predicted from a HM time.
But still, they're always quite intriguing to play around with. I use the one at marathon guide, there's also one at MacMillan, but I can never remember the url.
Race predictors say I could do the 16mile Kingston Breakfast run at 7:40 pace.- I'm trying to decide whether to go for it and risk blowing up.
[ This is all leading to the Lake Vyrnwy marathon in June.- I've been dreaming of getting a GFA qualifying time for London,
The predictors say this should be achievable- infact that I could go for 3:30 ( Which would be a comfort given what they did to the men's GFA this year ), but if I go for too much, I might get nothing... ]
I think like Hilly says they are more of a guide for what you could do if you trained properly for the distance.
I know many runners who were bitterly disappointed with their marathon times. they based their predicted finish time on their half marathon + 10-20 mins, which is correct, but after querying their training, found that they had not put in sufficient long runs.
As Shades says you have to train specifically for a particular distance. Mind I did for the marathon last year, but anything can happen on the day-a marathon is a long way!
Then it is 10 mins out for marathon times. In fact, I am 10 mins out as like Hilly says, you have to train for the distance.
I have been relatively undertrained aerobically for the marathon distance. Base training anyone:)?
Norwegian way
It's focussed on skiing, but I think the analysis is valid. Two hard sessions and lots of easy ones in a weekly programme seems to work really well. There's an article on the Portugese method (can't find link) that lays out similar approach.
My marathon pb is a full 2 hours (!) behind the predicted level - what a day that was.
I think the tables give pretty good estimates, but as we all agree, it depends what you are training to achieve.
Going to try again this year. Can't be worse...surely?
So next time skip the pub and you'll get a whopping pb.
1/2M... 2:20 - hard work
M.... 5:28 - easy - including 3 loo stops!
So I 'outperform' the predicted race times the further I go