Race Pace Predictors:

Hiya,

Just wondering what people think is the most accurate way of predicting performance at different distances based on a reference race..

There are lots of predictors on the web... But do I trust them..
[ Trying to convert from 10K reference race to expected marathon time.]

Comments

  • HillyHilly ✭✭✭
    I think they're fine as long as you do the training for the distance!

    IMHO though it's far better to use a 1/2M time to convert to expected marathon time. You wouldn't be far wrong if you doubled 1/2M time and added on 15 mins.
  • Good for setting targets and good for letting you know where your strengths currently lie.
  • They've proved fairly accurate for me in extrapolating half-marathon times from 10K times.

    They could never be 100% accurate obviously because of variations between courses, fitness fluctuations, course congestion etc etc.

    I think the greater the extrapolation, the more salt you should take with them, eg predicting a half-marathon time from a 5k should be treated with more scepticism than a marathon time predicted from a HM time.

    But still, they're always quite intriguing to play around with. I use the one at marathon guide, there's also one at MacMillan, but I can never remember the url.
  • MinksMinks ✭✭✭
    Bryan, it's www.mcmillanrunning.com
  • I amazed myself at the weekend and ran a sub 45 10K.

    Race predictors say I could do the 16mile Kingston Breakfast run at 7:40 pace.- I'm trying to decide whether to go for it and risk blowing up.
    [ This is all leading to the Lake Vyrnwy marathon in June.- I've been dreaming of getting a GFA qualifying time for London,

    The predictors say this should be achievable- infact that I could go for 3:30 ( Which would be a comfort given what they did to the men's GFA this year ), but if I go for too much, I might get nothing... ]
  • They don't work for me - or even come close - about 5 minutes out on my half mara pb from my 10k/5k times. But I've been trying to train my aerobic base more recently which hopefully will bring my half and full marathon times into line.

    I think like Hilly says they are more of a guide for what you could do if you trained properly for the distance.
  • SHADESSHADES ✭✭✭✭
    And those predictions assume you have done specific training for that distance.

    I know many runners who were bitterly disappointed with their marathon times. they based their predicted finish time on their half marathon + 10-20 mins, which is correct, but after querying their training, found that they had not put in sufficient long runs.
  • HillyHilly ✭✭✭
    Popsider my times are out too. My marathon time is 10 mins slower than the predictor says it should be based on both my 10k and 10 mile times. My 1/2m time is out by just 1 min, so that's ok.

    As Shades says you have to train specifically for a particular distance. Mind I did for the marathon last year, but anything can happen on the day-a marathon is a long way!
  • Snap. It works for me for all times up to 15 miles.

    Then it is 10 mins out for marathon times. In fact, I am 10 mins out as like Hilly says, you have to train for the distance.

    I have been relatively undertrained aerobically for the marathon distance. Base training anyone:)?
  • HillyHilly ✭✭✭
    I need BT, BR, but I'm too impatient-any other way to get there?!
  • My take on BT is that it does not have to be exclusive - that is doing the odd race or faster session doesn't negate the benefit of the slower paced running you do - it just means you can't do as much of it so build your base more slowly. Pants/others may correct me on this but I'd need convincing. The main thing then seems to be simply to slow down and do more miles on the majority of your runs - so basically slow down and get better - Runners World was right all along.
  • HillyHilly ✭✭✭
    Is it run slow in training and race fast(er)?
  • This may not be the best place for it, but I read an interesting piece about training...

    Norwegian way

    It's focussed on skiing, but I think the analysis is valid. Two hard sessions and lots of easy ones in a weekly programme seems to work really well. There's an article on the Portugese method (can't find link) that lays out similar approach.

    My marathon pb is a full 2 hours (!) behind the predicted level - what a day that was.

    I think the tables give pretty good estimates, but as we all agree, it depends what you are training to achieve.
  • 2 hours!! What happened?
  • I did it as a duathlon - 17 mile run, 9 mile stumbling walk.

    Going to try again this year. Can't be worse...surely?
  • SHADESSHADES ✭✭✭✭
    you must have had a pub lunch on the way!!

    So next time skip the pub and you'll get a whopping pb.
  • So a pb involves a pub without u
  • SHADESSHADES ✭✭✭✭
    I have gone into a pub during a marahon, but only to use the loo... had to decline the offer of a drink
  • My best ever mile speed - 9:17 - killed me
    1/2M... 2:20 - hard work
    M.... 5:28 - easy - including 3 loo stops!

    So I 'outperform' the predicted race times the further I go
  • HillyHilly ✭✭✭
    I seem to be better at 10 miles, most probably because it's a distance I do a lot of!
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