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# Curiousity and probability calculation

Hi everyone,

does anyone know how many application are in, and how many places are for the ballot?
I am really curious and would like to calculate my chances to get in.

p.s. My question is a part of my madness as a scientist

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Usually around 90K applications for 40K places, less however many are allocated for clubs, charities, good for age, elite, and this year, anyone who has poreviously been rejected 5 times. Chances somewhere around the snowball and hell area are my prediction (but I'll still be checking my bank statement VERY carefully for the next few weeks).
• I think that once the guaranteed places are taken from the 40,000, there are six places for 90,000 applicants, of which 4 go to mates of the person sorting out the ballot. Of the remaining two, chances suggest that one gets lost in the post.

Still, IT COULD BE YOU!

• I've heard it said you have about a 20% chance of getting in through the ballot. Anyone know if that figure sounds about right?

venom
(fingers crossed)
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A couple of years ago, someone told me it was 18.4% (though I've never seen that published by the FLM group) and this seems to get lower every year. There are more applicants every year (and this will only increase after last year's success I guess), probably more guaranteed & elite runners under the various times & the charity places seem to increase every year.

Awaiting my 2nd rejection letter in the next 6 weeks or so then.
• Charity places definitely don't increase as there is about a three year (no joke) waiting list of charities trying to buy places. There are about 10,000 charity places covering 800 charities.

I don't know what your chances are but if you are rejected you should seriously consider running for charity with a guaranteed place some charities have targets of about £850 - £1000 which is in most people's reach. The "unsuccessful applicant" mag (if you're unlucky to receive it) will be full of ads from charities promoting their places.

Also you can use our free sponsorship webpages to help raise funds online.

Best of luck anyway.
• And because all of you are in GB, you forgot to calculate in all the places that are given to sports tour companies around the world. I live in Germany and have run FLM 5 times, twice through the ballot, once as a Flora team member, and twice through booking a tour from Germany (which of course entails a scheduled airline flight and a hotel stay). I know there are quite a lot of other countries with guaranteed start places too - it's a money thing! I don't think there are really very many places available in the ballot.
• if they dont want me there are plenty of other marathons who do
• I 'm in for the FLM ballot, and expect to receive the reject letter in January (yet again).

So, to ensure I get a Spring big city 'thon, I've applied for Paris, and if I get FLM, that's a bonus - I hate leaving things like this to the vaguaries of a ballot which is loaded against you.