Determining Potential

Hi, so I was wondering if there were any ways people have come across to determine an upper limit on running potential. More specifically (long term) whether a sub-3 hour marathon would be possible.

Sep 2014 1:51 HM / 21:40 5k
May 2015 1:43 HM / 21:05 5k
Mar 2016 1:39 HM / 20:20 5k
Dec 2016 1:36 HM / 20:25 5k
Mar 2017 / 20:03 5k

I ran a 3:57 Marathon in Sep last year, but could have pushed harder had I had a more ambitious target - as I really struggled to push myself once I knew sub-4 was in the bag.

33 year old, though my current progress to date doesn't seem to be slowing down too much as far as I can see.

This has been based on just gradually increasing my mileage from around 20k per week in 2014, to maybe averaging 30k per week in 2015 and a fraction more in 2016 when not injured. I now seem to handling around 40k per week ok, mostly easy running with one long run and for the first time I've started to add in a weekly interval session too. I feel like the limiting factor may be that I seem to be quite injury prone when increasing my weekly mileage, so am having to take this process extremely slowly.

Is it possible for me to keep increasing at this rate indefinitely? (well, for another 3-5 years at least?)

Should I be concentrating on getting faster over a short distance (which would then translate to being faster over longer distances?) or just further trying to increase my weekly mileage and long runs?
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Comments

  • lou Diamondslou Diamonds ✭✭✭
    edited April 2017
    Yes - sub 3 should be possible and steady year on year increase in mileage is the way to do it.  Higher mileage will make you quicker at short distance and will make your long runs longer, so not need to choose one or the other.  Just try to maintain a good balance to your training. ie long run approx 30% of weekly mileage, 80% easy running no more than around 20% faster workouts.
    The 5k times you state are broadly similar to my first couple of years running and my first marathon was 3:30 off an average of about 30 mpw.  For the sake of comparison I achieved 3:01 last year off about 45-50mpw.  This year i've bee running 50-60mpw for the last few months and hoping to somewhere in the 2:55-3:00 range.
  • Stevie  GStevie G ✭✭✭✭
    edited April 2017

    Hi JD, Upon reading your top level mileage is basically 24miles a week, I instantly think of what the best runner I ever knew once said to me on hearing I did 25-30miles a week.

    "You've not even started training yet"

    Injury proof yourself, and build up gradually, and you can take those times infinitely faster.

    Don't even for a second think 33 is even ON the age spectrum for local level running. You only have to check out your average local race and all the 40+ times!

  • Your 20:03 5km time indicates 41 to 42 mins 10km and that should convert to a sub 1:30 HM. A sub 1:30 HM usually converts to a sub 3:10 Marathon.

  • JD 41JD 41 ✭✭
    Cheers guys, its encouraging to hear that increasing my mileage further will continue to make such a big difference. I've not signed up to a marathon this year, as last year my mileage clearly wasn't enough to support the "long" runs i did, where I was running more than half my week's distance on one day (and I use the term long run loosely as there weren't many and the longest was 18 miles)

    Just got halves booked in this year so I'm hoping that if I take it nice and steadily this time without need to rush an increase in mileage to meet a deadline, then I should be able to get to a much higher mileage by the end of the year without injury.

    Its encouraging to think that my 5k time should convert to a reasonable marathon time after some decent marathon training. My 10k is currently at about 42:30 from last year, though I could probably improve on that now if I raced one. Similarly I'll be aiming for something 1:30-1:35 in a half in May.

    By injury proof yourself do you have anything specific you would recommend Stevie? I found a few routines with squats, lunges and other exercises to strengthen the glutes and hips but I'm very undisciplined when it comes to fitting them in tbh!
  • NickW2NickW2 ✭✭✭
    If you are only doing 25 miles a week then I'm sure big improvements are possible, especially at the longer distances. But as others have said (and it sounds like you have experienced) if you try to build it up too quickly then the chance of injury increases a lot.

    I'm sure I read on here somewhere that you can expect to see improvements for 5-6 years or something like that from when you take up running, regardless of age. So there's certainly scope for a lot of improvement, if you have the time to give it and don't get injured.
  • You could do it - but TBH you've been running for three years but not successfully ramped it up yet  - so its probably unlikely you'll ramp things up now.  Some people go sub 3 for their first time.

    You'd need to work out why you get injured - and you need to be in good running shape. Carrying any excess weight will work against you.

    It's there for the taking though if you want it enough.
  • JD 41JD 41 ✭✭
    That's probably good food for thought to be honest, as I have no idea why I have previously got injured, but now seem to be fine running this level of mileage. The only thing I can think of is much slower build up.

    In previous years I've followed various stock half-marathon or marathon training plans but then even after adjusting them so they were less aggressive and increasing by less than 10% per week that still ultimately led me to a place where I would end up injured. Although these were with the long run taking up a much higher percentage of the weekly mileage too and looking back I seem to think a lot of my injuries were either after a long run or on the following run after it.

    This year increasing by 10% then running that level for 3 weeks, having a lower rest week then increasing by the next 10% and running that level for 3/4 weeks seems to be doing the trick. Although it will get me to a higher mileage more slowly I'm hoping that it will in fact get me there.
  • HA77HA77 ✭✭✭
    I think cougie is right and that you have to consider that there may be something causing your injuries other than just increasing mileage. If you are keen to increase your mileage and improve times, I'd recommend having your running form assessed by someone who specialises in such things.
  • JD 41JD 41 ✭✭
    I've always had gait analysis done in the shop when buying trainers but not come across anywhere that does that kind of thing just to assess your running form itself. Would that normally be through a running club?
  • HA77HA77 ✭✭✭
    edited April 2017
    Usually it's done by a sports physio or someone who's studied sports rehab and biomechanics. It's much more in depth than gait analysis you get at a shoe shop. Google running assessment. There are a few places i know of in london.

    Certainly helped me improve my running and stop repeated injuries.
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