Hi, so I was wondering if there were any ways people have come across to determine an upper limit on running potential. More specifically (long term) whether a sub-3 hour marathon would be possible.
Sep 2014 1:51 HM / 21:40 5k
May 2015 1:43 HM / 21:05 5k
Mar 2016 1:39 HM / 20:20 5k
Dec 2016 1:36 HM / 20:25 5k
Mar 2017 / 20:03 5k
I ran a 3:57 Marathon in Sep last year, but could have pushed harder had I had a more ambitious target - as I really struggled to push myself once I knew sub-4 was in the bag.
33 year old, though my current progress to date doesn't seem to be slowing down too much as far as I can see.
This has been based on just gradually increasing my mileage from around 20k per week in 2014, to maybe averaging 30k per week in 2015 and a fraction more in 2016 when not injured. I now seem to handling around 40k per week ok, mostly easy running with one long run and for the first time I've started to add in a weekly interval session too. I feel like the limiting factor may be that I seem to be quite injury prone when increasing my weekly mileage, so am having to take this process extremely slowly.
Is it possible for me to keep increasing at this rate indefinitely? (well, for another 3-5 years at least?)
Should I be concentrating on getting faster over a short distance (which would then translate to being faster over longer distances?) or just further trying to increase my weekly mileage and long runs?
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The 5k times you state are broadly similar to my first couple of years running and my first marathon was 3:30 off an average of about 30 mpw. For the sake of comparison I achieved 3:01 last year off about 45-50mpw. This year i've bee running 50-60mpw for the last few months and hoping to somewhere in the 2:55-3:00 range.
Hi JD, Upon reading your top level mileage is basically 24miles a week, I instantly think of what the best runner I ever knew once said to me on hearing I did 25-30miles a week.
"You've not even started training yet"
Injury proof yourself, and build up gradually, and you can take those times infinitely faster.
Don't even for a second think 33 is even ON the age spectrum for local level running. You only have to check out your average local race and all the 40+ times!
Just got halves booked in this year so I'm hoping that if I take it nice and steadily this time without need to rush an increase in mileage to meet a deadline, then I should be able to get to a much higher mileage by the end of the year without injury.
Its encouraging to think that my 5k time should convert to a reasonable marathon time after some decent marathon training. My 10k is currently at about 42:30 from last year, though I could probably improve on that now if I raced one. Similarly I'll be aiming for something 1:30-1:35 in a half in May.
By injury proof yourself do you have anything specific you would recommend Stevie? I found a few routines with squats, lunges and other exercises to strengthen the glutes and hips but I'm very undisciplined when it comes to fitting them in tbh!
I'm sure I read on here somewhere that you can expect to see improvements for 5-6 years or something like that from when you take up running, regardless of age. So there's certainly scope for a lot of improvement, if you have the time to give it and don't get injured.
You'd need to work out why you get injured - and you need to be in good running shape. Carrying any excess weight will work against you.
It's there for the taking though if you want it enough.
In previous years I've followed various stock half-marathon or marathon training plans but then even after adjusting them so they were less aggressive and increasing by less than 10% per week that still ultimately led me to a place where I would end up injured. Although these were with the long run taking up a much higher percentage of the weekly mileage too and looking back I seem to think a lot of my injuries were either after a long run or on the following run after it.
This year increasing by 10% then running that level for 3 weeks, having a lower rest week then increasing by the next 10% and running that level for 3/4 weeks seems to be doing the trick. Although it will get me to a higher mileage more slowly I'm hoping that it will in fact get me there.
Certainly helped me improve my running and stop repeated injuries.