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This year may well be different. Last year the new times were announced a week before vmlm, meaning London was the only real opportunity to achieve them and that turned out to be very hot where even champ level runners didn't manage gfa times.
You can normally get a pretty good idea by looking on runbritain rankings and seeing how many runners in the rankings have times between 2.45 and 3hrs within the qualifying window then going to v40 and see how many runners have a 3-3.05 time, then maybe add 750 on for the other cats or continue the exercise further down.
Cheerful Dave - Boston 2017 was hard going and they had a much higher DNF rate than usual. I ran Boston in 3:24 despite walking for at least 2 miles (set off at 3 hour pace, but that didn't last long). Absolutely knackered at the end. Got on a plane home that night and could hardly walk on arrival back at Heathrow on the Tuesday. Still couldn't walk properly when I got to the London start line, and set off at hobbling pace with no expectations at all. Fatigue really set in for the last 6 miles, but still managed a surprisingly good 3:14.
So yes, race the first one, get round the second one.
Apparently the GFA entry results are out on Thursday. Good luck everyone!
Sorry you didn't get in, Nicko. Does that mean they've moved to a Boston style qualifying model? Bloomin' unlucky there.Mine's a pint of Peroni...