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What time can I expect for a marathon?
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I am planning on running the FLM next year.It is my furst marathon and I would like to be able to set myself a target time.I realise that I shouldn't underestimate it but I have run several halves my best being around 1 hr 36 and my most recent 10 miler (2 weeks ago) at 72 mins 30s.
I still felt pretty strong at the end doing my last mile in 6m40s (sorry if I sound sad,it's just what my watch said!).
I would like to know whether if my training goes well whether I can expect to improve my potential marathon time?Currently I would predict about 3 hrs 22 but I would like to be able to aim for 3.15,is this totally un-realistic,what's other people's experience?
Thanks
I still felt pretty strong at the end doing my last mile in 6m40s (sorry if I sound sad,it's just what my watch said!).
I would like to know whether if my training goes well whether I can expect to improve my potential marathon time?Currently I would predict about 3 hrs 22 but I would like to be able to aim for 3.15,is this totally un-realistic,what's other people's experience?
Thanks
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Comments
There's a race time prediction calculator here. You can tell it your recent race times and it'll give you an idea of what you can expect. Naturally they're not infallible, but it's a starting point.
As a rule of thumb, I've read people suggesting that to double your half marathon time and add 10 minutes is a good starting point too.
Good luck
I think your 1/2M time right now predicts around 3:22 but we're some way off from FLM right now. I'm a firm believer of 2x 1/2M +10-15 mins but I think a 1/2M in January would be a better predictor.
best
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I've seen the workouts you've been posting and I firmly believe you'll be in the vicinity of 3:16 next time out.
As a recent marathon debutant I can only advise you to not set a time target that is too aggressive as I believe that everyone reacts differently to the marathon distance. Having completed between 30-40 half marathons prior to the marathon I thought I new what running was about - however the energy drain in the second half of the race is something impossible to describe (However with more miles in the bank I probably would have fared better).
As a guide, in the weeks leading up to the marathon I completed a half in 1:31 and a 10k in 39:01 which would have suggested a time of around 3:15 (or under). I actually finished in 3:40 (twice - but that's another stroy).
So, enjoy your first one. Get a feel for the distance, and make a go for a time in the second one.
Whatever you decide - best of luck.
I too know how it feels for things to go wrong on the day. However, saying that we still have to believe we can achieve our goals and have the confidence to try.
So Ian and everyone else aiming to get those marathon times-GO FOR IT!!
Happy Running!!
1:29 half M in July
1:33 half M end Sept (disaster - another story - not representative)
3:19 marathon end Oct (my first)
1:25 half M mid Nov
So I would go with the 2 x half plus 10 to 20 min rule. I regulated pace very carefuly on the marathon and it felt comfortable most of the way - although having "settled" at a pace I certainly did not feel like picking it up in the second half and was shattered after the end.
So, I would go with a target at the 2 x half + 20 min end of the scale, get the 5 x longest runs = 100 miles in training under the belt, and then monitor progress carefully on the day.
The other approach is to look at how you feel after a long run (20-22 miles) near or at planned pace - but don't try this close to the event !