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The RW Race-Time Predictor
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completeed LFM in 3.35, last month
the last couple of weeks have done a few short races with out any special training for them (distances which I've never tried before) and got
34.58 -5 miler (predicts 3.16 marathon)
19.50 -5km (predicts 3.10 marathon)
so either I've found my niche in the shorter distances, or the calc just doesn't work for me ...or i just had a really bad day!!
10k 46:24
1/2 m 1:44:45 actual
Marathon PB: 3:39:01 (2004)
5k – 20:05 (2005) – Predicts 03:12:25
10k – 42:28 (2004) – Predicts 03:15:09
10 miles – 01:07:48 (2005) – Predicts 03:10:56
Half Marathon – 01:32:35 (2005) – Predicts 03:13:01
Determined to get that sub-3:15 next Spring…..
I need to sharpen my full marathon times up though by the look of the preditors time... :-)
i have similat times to yours - best 10k 45.43 and best 1/2m 1:44:45..
....struggling to break 45 for 10k, & would be harder to break 1:40 for 1/2m for me.
looks like your 10k was a really good day
My best 1500 time this summer is 3.49 which gives me these times:
3k 7.57 (8.22 best)
5k 13.40 (14.50 best)
10k 28.30 (30.49 best)
half 62.50
marathon 2.11
Im ranked about 60th in the country for 1500m, imagine the potential of the other 59 runners in front of me, yet only 1 Brit has been under 7.57 for 3k this year, 1 under 13.40, none under 28.30, none 62.50 etc.
My best 10K this summer was 58.44
The calculator predicted my 5K would be 28.10 when infact it was 28.44 so only 34 seconds out.
I don't think the estimation of 2.09 for my half marathon is going to be accurate (last year pb is 2h 17) but that's because I haven't really been training for it, whereas the 5K and 10K I worked equally pretty hard for and raced them within a week or so of eachother.
n = ln(marathon time/ 10 k time)/ln(marathon distance/10k distance). Where ln is the natural logarithm. What you will find is that for most people n will be larger 1.06 - mine for example is 1.11. You can then put the n back into the formula T2 = T1 x (D2/D1)^1.06 and recalculate your expected time at a marathon based on a recent shorter race.
If you look at Paula Radcliffe's times for the marathon she is actually underperforming at 10k according to the predictor, but we all know she is exceptionally tuned to 26.2 miles. I think she illustrates perfectly why you cannot apply a mathematical formula to human potential.
Actual Half Time - 1.55
Predicted Mara' Time - 3.59.46 (I wish!)
Actual Mara' Time - 4.18.42
Tried quite a few times and found it a bit optimistic, esp on the longer distances.
Think you are right in that different runners tune themselves to different distances.
Don't know if you can make an individual formula, or fit in a variable for it.
It worked quite well for me, but by time you have run a mara too many things could have happened. Rain, hail, snow, dehydration, not recovered enough, or just downright knackered :-)
Predicted 5k = 18:45
Actual 5k = 18:37
Predicted 5mile = 31:03
Actual 5mile = 32:42 (however, months ago)
Predicted 1/2 Mararathon = 01:26:13
Actual 1/2 Marathon = 01:32:05 (however, failed last 3 mile badly)
So, not too far off I think... well, not rediculous, however, I'll try again in around 8 weeks time due to my actual times getting out of date now!
Predicted marathon = 03:41:54
ACTUAL MARATHON = 03:50:23
... not too disappointed 'though because these are times for my 2nd half marathon (2 weeks ago) and first marathon (yesterday), having taken up running 7 months ago in mid life crisis mode. Feeling sore today! Aiming for 03:45 at London next.
19:30 for 5k ties in with my
1:28 for 1/2 mara
Which means I should be looking at 3:06 for the full monty.....
Shame my 3:44 isn't quite there isn't it!
Do I get a medal for the biggest discrepancy and could do better report????
I think the further the distance, the more in-accurate this prediction formula gets... as the longer the runs, the worse peoples individual bodies re-act... the longer the run is, the more shite I get :-)
Anyone else done a prediction from half to marathon and got correct results? I'd love to know, as I havent' a clue what pace to run the Paris Marathon at!!!
Predicted Mara 4:03:42
Actual Mara 3:50:48 Jan 06
Way out....
Must confess, it scared me when I did this!
Actual 10M: 69.14 (Dec 2005)
Predicted Half: 1.32.10
(Actual Half PB: 1.33.56 Oct 2005))
So fairly close but:
Predicted Mara: 3.12.10
(Actual Mara PB: 3.43.56 June 2005)
Even starting with my best Half time (1.33.56) the predicted marathon time is 3.15.50.
Way, way out at the moment. I'm currently using the sub-3.30 schedule for the Stratford Marathon in May so I'll let you know if this is remotely close:)
pugheaven - couldn't agree more. Without the proper training you would find it difficult to achieve your aims.
I think the mental training is very important for marathons. I've been determined and focused for one mara and got within my goal (sub-3.45) and one where my head just wasn't in it and, although it was only 10 mins slower, I had a terrible time for the last 10 miles. The point of this bit is that, although I can picture myself doing 3.30 at Stratford, I cannot possibly imagine getting down to 3.15 or even less!!!