The RW Race-Time Predictor

1468910

Comments

  • Well, 2 weeks ago I did a half in 1.42.18 gave me a predicted 10k of 46.24.
    I was aiming for a sub 45 but the course had too many sharp corners for me, and a strong gusty wind. I ended in a rather to close to predicted time for my liking of 46.18.
    I will just have to push harder next time, and maybe not stop to take a layer off!
    I am not hugely happy with a 46 because I know I can do better, but as I have only been running for 7 months I suppose I should accept it as a challenge for next time.
  • It seems to show a bit af a faster result than the Macmillan formula. However, its not too bad for races that are "one notch" away from the baseline.

    Recent HM: 1:25:03
    5k predicted 18:30 (actual 18:33 last year)
    10k predicted 38:35 (actual 38:32 last year)
    Mara predicted 2:57:19 (dreaming)

    Last year's HM 1:26:35
    predicted mara 3:00:31 (actual 3:06:03)

    To me that is 3 minutes faster than I truly expect.

    I suppose the answer is to get off my fata rse and to go running.
  • just tried this as part of my flm training. 9m race in 1 hr 23 mins,predicted half marathon in 2 hr 3m 33s. did half marathon in 2hr 3m 15s 2 week later. marathon time prediction is 4hrs 14m.i hope its true, was hoping for sub 4hr 30m but i`ll be happy just to finish
  • GobiGobi ✭✭✭
    Mine are all out

    I have run a fast 5k as part of my speed training for ultras this year and this pulls all my predicted times away from what they are.

    On the plus side I expect to improve on all of these later this year so hopefully that will bring them into line.
  • I have to say the predictor is way out, although I hope it is right.
    My training has not gone too well for the London Marathon, and both my latest 10k and half marathon times have been personal worsts by some margin. However based on these times it predicts a time of 4 hours 8 minutes.
    Trouble is last year I was running half marathons at least 10 minutes quicker, and my best marathon time was 4 hours 3 mins. I did three.
    I actually think a time around 4 hours 25 mins is more realistic, although tempted based on the predictor to run the first half a little under 2 hours and see if I can hold it together in the second half.
  • Well it seems OK for me for my 10k to Half times. It shows a 2.59 for the Marathon - which seems a bit too good to be true though.

    I wonder if I've got enough long runs in this year to get anywhere near ?
  • SeelaSeela ✭✭✭
    Spot on, from 5k to full marathon.

    I had been using the formula t2=t1*power((d2/d1), 1.07), not 1.06 and that was fairly accuate
  • Hi,

    I'm training for my 1st marathon (27/5). My 10K PB of 40:35 seems consistent with a recent half marathon of 1:30. The calculator predicts 3:08 for the marathon. However, I'm a bit afraid that that time is far too agressive. I was actually thinking of breaking 3:30. What do you guys think? How much of an effect does the fact that its my 1st marathon really have?

    Thanks
    Tom
  • SeelaSeela ✭✭✭
    Tom,
    You HAVE got to have done the training for a marathon, but it should be fairly accurate.

    BUT if you are a marathon virgin all kinds of things can go wrong, and some people just haven't the endurance, so I would try to treat the predicted time with some caution. Aim for 3:15 to 3:30. If you are good at 20 miles you can always pick the pace up for the last 6
  • Thanks for this Mak's friend. I think I'll set out at 4.54 per KM rather than 5 (3:25 Vs. 3:30) and as you say see how I feel towards the latter stages.

  • I've finally completed two races so I can compare the times and I must say I'm impressed!!

    1st race - 10k in 45:49... this gave a predicted time of 1:40:59 for my upcoming 1/2 marathon. I thought this was a bit ambitious as i'm still a novice (only been running for 5 months) and personally expected to finish around 1hr50'ish

    Today I completed the half marathon in 1:40:01, and without doubt over the moon! so the race time predicter gets a big thumbs up from me, less than a minute out :o)
  • way2slowway2slow ✭✭✭
    I too have just completed my second race and am also pretty impressed with the predictor.
    1st race i managed 10K (on a flat course) in 52.43 (i've only got little legs) and you predicted 1.56.05 for a half marathon. Yesterday i completed my half marathon (this time an undulating course) in an official time of 1.49.55 - it actually took me 5 mins to get across the start line so ran it closer to 1.45. Not a bad prediction (only 5 mins or so out) considering i only took up running in Jan and my 10K was done in March (guess my fitness levels improved in the 2 months between). Am looking forward to doing a sub 4 hour marathon next (according to your predictor that is)!!!!!
  • Good times Rachel - if you're doing those times you should easily do a sub 4 mara. Just follow a training program (RW, Hal Higdon) and don't miss the long runs.

    The predictor worked for me. Using my 1/2 mara pb from April (1:45:32) it gives me a 3:40:01 marathon, and I've just done 3:41:22 (GFA for me!), so that's a minute and a bit out.
  • I'm quite impressed with this predictor. I did a half marathon (leeds) in 1h 43 minutes and it predicted that I should be able to do 5k in 23 minutes. I've just done the John Carr 5K in 22 minutes 12 secs so it was a relatively close estimate. It also predicts that I should be able to do a 10K in 46 minutes. My PB for 10k is 52 minutes so we will see how good this predictor is when I do my next 10k (Wheldrake).
  • It's accurate, with similar distance... I did a 5k PB 2 weeks ago in 18:25... then did a 10k race on Sunday in 38:39 (predicted 38:25), however, I went out and did the first 3 mile in sub 6 minute miling... so I knackered it up myself... I reckon it's pretty much spot on!
  • 10K pb is somewhere near 46mins, race predictor suggests 1hr41 for a half, which is close to my PB of 1hr42.

    However, my predicted marathon time is 3hrs30 and I managed 4hrs35 at London this year! Ooops.
  • My 10 k PB set last month (45:51) predicts 1:41:03 for a half-marathon

    My best is 1:49:04 in GNR 2005 (crowded!),
    would be surprised (and delighted) if I could get close to 1:41 this year on any course.

  • my training partner's 10k PB 55:48 predicts 2:02:58 for a half marathon - she achieved 2:03:01 in the Great Cumbrian Run
  • way2slowway2slow ✭✭✭
    looks pretty accurate then - excellent stuff

  • It's pretty accurate for races close together (5K-10K, etc) and for up to Half marathons. But it's clearly much more difficult to be accurate for marathons. As I've said on here, it's way out on that for me.
  • SeelaSeela ✭✭✭
    The logic behind the formula relies on you running at your anerobic threshold. So it fails for distance less than 800 metres where you can get into massive oxygen debt, and longer than 4 hours (approx) where your body has exhausted all its carbohydrates and has to go to burning fat to keep you going.

    But within those limits it should be accurate.

    However for a marathon you must have trained for the distance, so your body can acclimitise to the severe demands the distance makes.
  • xl man,

    you must be following me...just done a 10k in 45:50 and a half in edinburgh in 1:48:18. Not sure I could reach 1:41, but possibly 1:44


    Been trying to break 45 mins for 10k for last 3 years without success any advice?
  • run faster ;o)

    Sorry, lol, that was no help at all was it?! Have you had a go at following the runners world 10k training schedules? I'm trying a 4 week one atm and will see how much it improves on my last 10k time.
  • 5k = 18:25
    10k = 38:39 (although should have done 38:10)
    Half = 1:24:50

    These are around about correct from the predictor...
  • I set myself up a training schedule, which I'm in week 6 now... have to say, haven't followed it perfectly however, my half PB has just been demolished by 3 minutes, down from 1:27:44 to 1:24:50 and to be fair, at 11 mile was on for 1:23:50 but hills killed me off... damn it :-)
  • Can you count treadmill times? I have only recently started running again (last 4 months) and I've done a few races although as I train harder - mostly on treadmill, my times have started to improve quite a bit. My PB times on road obviously include wind and crowding etc. Taking my best treadmill time for 10K (44.47) I should be able to do a 1:38.42 Half and a 3:25.48 marathon although my PB for the half on road is 1:50.44. My best for road 10K is only 47.45 though. I am doing a marathon again in September and wold love to know what the right target is to aim for
  • Hmmm, interesting question! I'm sure if you took a mean of the two times you couldn't be far off! Personally I find my times to improve on the road rather than the treadmill.

    With a treadmill though it can be a case of just setting a pace to acheive a time you desire and keeping up with it, out on the road your pace at all times is determined by yourself.

    again, an interesting question which i'd like to know if anyone could elaborate on, though my response would be that it wouldn't be far off (assuming you do the necessary training that is!). Either way, Good Luck!
  • Alastair - I reckon 3:47:48 not to be too precise about :-)

    Good luck!!
  • paskhapaskha ✭✭✭
    Re TREADMILLS - We are so different !!

    I find it really difficult to run STEADY / SUSTAINED / FAST on the treddy

    I can run races on the road much faster than I could do on the treadmill (eg. 53.40 for 10K - could barely keep going for 2 miles at 9 min / miling on the treadmill - and, yes, I was warmed up!)

    The Predictor is good for showing EACH INDIVIDUALS BEST DISTANCE - in my case it's a HALF MARATHON, so the predicted times for 10K & 5 miles are too FAST, but so too is the MARATHON, but shows me what I could aim for, if I was able to do all the training

    Recent PBs

    10K 53.40
    10 miles 1:32 (mostly off-road)
    Half-M 1:55:14
    Marathon 4:28:24 (not an easy course, and difficult weather - also this was my 29th marathon, so I've been trying quite a long time!)
  • I always find that in a race I never run at a steady pace all the way round. I always have good and bad patches during a race, which might explain why you find treadmill work more difficult because unless you consiously turn the speed down you don't get your natural "rests" during a run?

    Did a 10k on Sunday in 44'50" with a 5k split in 21'30" which is what the predeictor calculates to the second!! Will be doing Joydens Wood 5k tomorrow, which is quite a tough one, so I will be aiming for the same time in the confidence that I've done it before...that's the theory anyway.
Sign In or Register to comment.