This year we had 11 runners miss out on the ballot, most of them reasonable 3-4hr standard but a couple in the 5hr category. Only one person i know of got straight in. Last year was a similar ratio with 9 rejections.
If the 'normal' chances are one in four then we are doing particularly badly. Is it because Club runners are biased against, maybe becasue they get a second chance with their club? Or maybe the odds of getting in at 3-4hrs is twice as bad as at 5hrs?
I don't expect we'll ever know how they choose the ballot places since it may lead to a lot of 3:30 runners putting down 7 hours. However, it would be nice to get a little reassurance that their methods are fair