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Predict my marathon time...
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Hi everyone,
Thought it would be interesting to find out what people reckon my target marathon time should be. (Running on the 14th October) The image below is a screen shot of my activity, and you can also add on me playing football once a week.
So, what do you reckon? Thanks.
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I'll play. 3h40m.
According to my calculations you will run it in exactly 3hours 32min 24sec.
Which marathon?
Well according to the Mac calc, 3.06. based on your hm . 3.07 on your 10k
I have used the mac calc for some time and if I put in the work its pretty spot on. So I would say aim for that sort of time. Allow your self a 3:30 finish time as a max. Good to have a bit of fear and loathing in the belly
Pace your self very negatively
Whatevery you have left at mile 20 use it up.
Come in spent and paid in full
This a mile by mile break down of a very negative 3:30 marathon.
The numbers are Distance, Split, Pace, Average pace
1 mile 08:37 08:37 08:37 2 mile 17:12 08:35 08:36 3 mile 25:44 08:32 08:35 4 mile 34:12 08:29 08:33 5 mile 42:38 08:26 08:32 6 mile 51:01 08:23 08:30 7 mile 59:21 08:20 08:29 8 mile 01:07:37 08:17 08:27 9 mile 01:15:51 08:14 08:26 10 mile 01:24:02 08:11 08:24 11 mile 01:32:11 08:08 08:23 12 mile 01:40:16 08:05 08:21 13 mile 01:48:18 08:02 08:20 13.1 mile (half) 01:49:12 08:02 08:20 14 mile 01:56:17 07:59 08:18 15 mile 02:04:14 07:56 08:17 16 mile 02:12:07 07:53 08:15 17 mile 02:19:58 07:51 08:14 18 mile 02:27:45 07:48 08:13 19 mile 02:35:30 07:45 08:11 20 mile 02:43:12 07:42 08:10 21 mile 02:50:51 07:39 08:08 22 mile 02:58:27 07:36 08:07 23 mile 03:05:59 07:33 08:05 24 mile 03:13:30 07:30 08:04 25 mile 03:20:57 07:27 08:02 26 mile 03:28:21 07:24 08:01 26.2 mile 03:30:00 07:22 08:00
S E F: The calculators probably do come out at around 3:06 but I can't see too much endurance work there. My guess is 3:15 if all goes well on the day.
3:27:19
Nothing to do with the thread, sorry, but Im fascinated that you can run a half in 1:28 yet only average 9.6 mph over 11.19 miles? Not taking the piss but where you cycling with a child? I'm half an hour slower than you over a half, so yes very unfit, yet even on the most easiest, slowest, free wheeling half the the time, dallying about ride I average 15 mph? I would've thought an easy ride for you would've been closer to 20 mph?
The lack of long runs may tell...3.38.
^^^^ Agree, lack of long runs will be a big factor here. 3.27.
I'm with Freemers - Given the race is now less than a month away I would have expected to see a few more 20s in there - at least 4/5 - I am presuming you will be looking to get in at least a 22 this weekend - and maybe an 18/20 the followong week.
Hi all.
Thanks for the comments, very interesting
It's the Leicester Marathon.
I've used the Mcmillan predictor but I've not run frequently enough to get anywhere near the 3:06 it suggests!
I'm hoping for anything under 3:45. I was training for a marathon 2 years ago but got injured and could only do the half. I would have been looking at 3:15 then. My first marathon so finishing is the main aim! My first half marathon was 1:45 as I took it cautiously but from then on I knew I could put a lot more into it and haven't run slower than 1:35 in a race since.
Lardarse, I wasn't cycling with a child! Was only a tootle round and almost the entire ride was off-road, and a good chunk of it was across freshly ploughed fields! Also got to take into account numerous gates I had to open and close.
A 22? I wasn't planning to go above 20...
I was looking at doing 20 this coming weekend, and then an 18 on the next and then just light work for the final weekend.
I'm hoping for around 4hours on 4th November. Did my first 18miler on Sunday. Reading comments above I may have to do a few more
Did almost the same time at last years GNR, did loch ness marathon two weeks later in exactly 3.15. Off of only one 20 miler and a couple of 18's. So 3.15 would sound a reasonable bet on that basis.
But how many times did you run per week?
4 - 5 usually
I'd say around 3:35 ish.
Incidentally, I think you could benefit from some longer distances at aerobic pace. Even your 'easier' runs average 155BPM. Perhaps a few longer runs at 145BPM pace would do you some good.
3:19:51.5
Done another two 20 mile runs since posting, both in around 3 hours.
Despite feeling fairly strong (managed a 7:24 last mile!) I experienced some cramp in my right calf on the first of these runs and cramp in my left calf on the one I've just done.
Both came in at around 17/18 miles and wasn't enough to really slow me down and it eased off somewhat at the end but a bit worried that it will really kick in at 22/23.
Any tips on how to avoid cramps on race day?
I've recently heard if you lose a lot of salt when sweating, it a big factor in causing cramps... maybe something to look into. My brother does Ironman and got cramps a lot until they did this test where they extract some sweat somehow and look at the salt in that amount, it was very high; since then he has increased his salt intake he doesn't get cramps...
i predict........ That you will beat me (hoping against hope, to beat 5:30)
Whatever time you do good luck
I meant to comment on this again!
I ran it in 3:47.
After 13 miles I was running at sub 8:00 minute mile pace but then almost every subsequent mile was slower than the last!
Great experience, and for my first marathon, not a bad effort! Have certainly learnt a lot.
WIth the very first prediction I make it that TimR was closest, but what do I know with my dodgy comprehensive education and dumbed down maths A level
Yay!
Bugger!
Leicesterfan - well done on your first marathon...are you going to do another one? (if so more long runs will be the key!)