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Is Sub 3 a realistic aim for London Marathon 2013
I ran 1:36.22 in the Royal Parks half on the weekend, and am running London Marathon in April. I am wondering what is a realistic goal for it? My training for the half was pretty basic, so am thinking if I trained properly over the winter, would I be able to break 3 hours?
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Hard to say on the amount of information you've provided, but my instinct is it's unlikely. To run a sub-3 marathon you need to be able to run a half marathon in something like 1.22-1.25, which means taking up to 15 minutes off your half time. Although that might happen, it will depend on quite how limited your training for the half was and quite how much more training your body can cope with without breaking down. There are well-established sub 3.15 and sub 3 training threads, so it might be worth posting on there but with much more detail about your running history and recent training.
What Joolska said.
There's a thread on here that looked at first (and later) marathon times based on HM times. The most common estimate over hundreds of results turned out to be about 2xHMtime +20, so presently with some marathon training in line with your half training you'd be looking at about 3:32. You say your training for the half was pretty basic, so maybe you've got some improvement to be found, but over half an hour? Probably not.
Ditto what Joolska says.
I would not like to see you go for sub 3 and end up breaking yourself.
(3:22:44)
Sub 3 is a big leap but nothing is impossible.
Didn't we have something similar last year?
Like everyone else has said whilst not impossible, its unlikely. Training is only one part, experience plays a valuable role too.
Jools knows. She's got the T shirt. And she's very polite in the response.