Are you and "in" or an "out"?

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  • 15West15West ✭✭✭

    Just voted. Took daughter to show her how important democracy is. She said it was boring.

  • HappychapHappychap ✭✭✭

    I have an element of curiosity to see what would happen if we voted leave.  It would in essence be a [email protected] disaster but from a socio-economic/migration perspective it would be interesting nonetheless. 

    Maybe they'll satisfy our curiosity with a 'sliding doors' type film featuring stay and go?

    In any respect - I voted in and then silently apologised to my grandma who will be slowly turning in her grave.

  • Nose NowtNose Nowt ✭✭✭

    ^^  image  ^^

    Pretty much how I feel happychap.  A part of me would be intrigued to see what would happen.  This morning, RickF's post resonated with this feeling, I think.

  • NessieNessie ✭✭✭
    Nose Nowt wrote (see)
    Skinny Fetish Fan wrote (see)

    On the proxy votes you are right and wrong. I am too late to apply for a proxy vote but eligible for an emergency proxy vote as my work has told me I need to be out of the country since the proxy vote deadline passed.

     

    Well that's good -but really surprises me.  What is the proxy-vote deadline for then?!!

    Anyone can opt for a postal vote or to appoint a proxy to vote for them.  The more people who do this, the more work is involved to administer it.  If you know well in advance that you are going to be on holiday or unable to get to your polling station, you tell them and it's sorted out in advance.  There's a deadline for this so that it's not a last minute rush (like telling people 3 months in advance that they need to be on the electoral roll to vote, so that there's not a mad rush on the last day that crashes the online system......... oh).

    Occasionally, there will be an emergency - you break your leg and end up in traction in hospital; your boss sees fit to send you on an unscheduled trip to Outer Mongolia on election day; you have a family emergency and have to go to the other end of the country to look after a sick relative.  These can't be sorted out in advance, so there is a standby system to deal with them.  But if everyone decided at the last minute that they couldn't be arsed walking half a mile to the polling station, so appointed one person in the street to vote for everyone, there would be chaos - hence the deadline for "planned" proxies.

    Liken it to swapping places for a big race - changing the details on loads of timing chips can be handled a few weeks out.  Having people turn up on the day and asking to run in someone else's place isn't so easy to administer, when there are loads of other jobs for the race organisers to be doing. 

  • JT141JT141 ✭✭✭
    I'm fascinated to know which areas vote which way. It's going to give an interesting heat map of the U.K. in terms of outlook.
  • PhilPubPhilPub ✭✭✭
    JT141 wrote (see)
    I'm fascinated to know which areas vote which way. It's going to give an interesting heat map of the U.K. in terms of outlook.

    Probably something akin to the striking blue vs red / enlightened urbanites vs hillbilly yokels you get in US presidential elections.

    image

  • Now that this is all over I would observe that the immigration argument ruined the whole debate and we have missed a big opportunity to discuss the EU, how it functions, is it effective, would it be better if we were fully in rather than paddling in the shallow water.

    The viewpoint 'Immigration Good, EU Bad' was simply overlooked.

    I think the big danger now that I am pretty certain the country has voted remain is that the idea of the UK being independent of Europe will have grouped a large proportion of voters into that mindset for the next General Election and that rather than weaken UKIP it will strengthen them - this would be a bad thing and I worry about the unrest caused in the country by this polarisation of views.

    On a separate topic as I am in Poland I took the opportunity of discussing the EU with one of my Polish colleague for an alternative viewpoint. 

    He said that without the EU Poland would be a lot worse off because the EU (funded by the larger countries like the UK of course) provided the funding for a lot of infrastructure projects in Poland that helped to make Poland fit for business which is something that many UK companies have benefited from (particularly larger ones).

    Also he felt that the EU legislation, whilst unwelcome sometimes, has helped to bring Eastern European countries in line with Western Europe in many areas because if they do not comply then they can't be in EU. This has both improved conditions in those countries but also helped countries like UK and Germany outsource to these countries knowing they are now 'fit for business'.

    I think there is an alternative UK viewpoint on both these points regarding us funding Poland and jobs leaving UK and being done in Poland/Eastern Europe but perhaps the European wide effect is something that is not considered when we think selfishly about the impact of the EU on the UK alone.

  • 15West15West ✭✭✭

    Polls are indicating a win more likely for Remain...but...will they be right this time?!

  • PhilPub wrote (see)
    JT141 wrote (see)
    I'm fascinated to know which areas vote which way. It's going to give an interesting heat map of the U.K. in terms of outlook.

    Probably something akin to the striking blue vs red / enlightened urbanites vs hillbilly yokels you get in US presidential elections.

    image

    I think they were coined 'The United States of Canada' and 'Jesus land' in the last US election.

    Basically the USA of C being Canada plus the whole West coast and half the east coast of the USA.

  • 15West15West ✭✭✭

    I think it will be metropolitan areasvoting remain...especially those who normally vote labour (like Manchester where I am)....and more deprived and more rural areas voting leave...in England and Wales. Scotland will be mostly for remain. Not sure about N Ireland...may depend on which area is unionist or republican?

  • 15West15West ✭✭✭

    Something like....

    https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/inlineimage/2016-06-20/freddie2.png

     

  • PhilPubPhilPub ✭✭✭

    Not that MPs will necessarily reflect the views of their constituents, but this summary of MPs' voting intentions is interesting, and includes a map.

  • 15West wrote (see)

    I think it will be metropolitan areas voting remain...especially those who normally vote labour (like Manchester where I am)....and more deprived and more rural areas voting leave...in England and Wales. 

    The most deprived area in the UK, which is Oldham (according to the ONS), IS in Manchester, so square that circle! 

    I still reckon that the polls will prove to be inaccurate, and that the Brexiteers may have their way.

  • skottyskotty ✭✭✭
    Pudge wrote (see)

    I still reckon that the polls will prove to be inaccurate, and that the Brexiteers may have their way.

    I think the turnout is the key.

    If it is low it will suit the leave campaign as they are keener to vote for change and will all go out to vote.

    However I think the panic and being behind in the polls recently should have convinced remainers to vote.

     

  • 15West15West ✭✭✭

    Both Oldham and city of Manchester are separate boroughs in Greater Manchester. City of Manchester, Trafford, Stockport probably all for remain...the poorer boroughs like Oldham will be for leave.

  • People voting without looking into the issues are going with Leave.

    People who have looked at the issues are going with Remain.



    That's my experience anyway.



    There should be some kind of test outside the polling station before you can get in.
  • cougie wrote (see)
    People voting without looking into the issues are going with Leave.
    People who have looked at the issues are going with Remain.


    Might be your experience Cougie, but not representative of the entire population!

  • cougie wrote (see)
    People voting without looking into the issues are going with Leave.
    People who have looked at the issues are going with Remain.


    Might be your experience Cougie, but not representative of the entire population!

  • There's an echo in here......in here......in here.......

  • 15West15West ✭✭✭

    I'm not sure...it's all about risk. If you feel so strongly about being out of the EU, with issues like controlling immigration etc., and you're willing to take a gamble on how bad/long a possible post brexit downturn would be, or maybe you don't think you have anything to lose...then you are more than likely going to go for it and vote leave.

  • Thats why I said its my experience Pudge...





    Pudge....







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  • 15West15West ✭✭✭

    Apparently 54% of 18-24 year olds said they would definitely vote today, compared to 79% of over 65s. Could be significant. 

  • Nose NowtNose Nowt ✭✭✭
    runner-man wrote (see)
    My firm would like to employ British workers but whenever we advertise we get very little. So my firm and many others have to look at the EU. Its that or you don't get the goods in the shops.


    ... or charge a few pence more the shopping - and make clear to the public what a  company you are.  Bit of a risk though!

     

  • HA77HA77 ✭✭✭

    I know if really want to you'll vote but I did wonder if you'd get better turnout among the working population if you voted on a Saturday. I guess they are open until 10.

  • If people can't get to the polling stations then you'd think they'd think ahead and get a postal vote ? I think stupidity should rule you ineligible to vote.
  • Interesting watching the bookies odds today.  From a leave result drifting out as far as 8/1 at lunchtime today, odds have now started to shorten quite sharply, being around 4/1.

    Remain still the clear favourite though.

  • 15West15West ✭✭✭

    Pounds dropping too.

  • MuttleyMuttley ✭✭✭

    Just voted image

    (Remain, although I held my nose as I did it)

  • 15West wrote (see)

    Pounds dropping too.

    Yep.  In fact, there's possibly money to be made here.  The market has pretty much priced in a 'remain' vote, to the extent that if it does happen then it will shrug its shoulders and say 'meh'.

    However, if 'leave' wins, the market will get twatted tomorrow morning.

    In other words, buying the market now gives you not much, if any, upside potential, but PLENTY of downside risk, so you wouldn't want to.

    However, if you already own shares, you might have wanted to sell them all today.  Tomorrow, if leave wins you can buy them all back at pretty much the same price and you've gained nowt but you've lost nowt, but if remain wins then you can buy them all back at a massive discount after the bottom drops out of the market.

    Winner, winner, chicken dinner.

  • Great post by Skinny on the previous page - especially the bit about engaging fully with the EU, if the opportunity arises. There is a whole lot more that the EU could do for us, and benefits (of various kinds) that we, as a country and as regions, could access if the UK did engage properly.

    Just voted with hubby - we're both still uncertain about the outcome and very much fear that the "exiters" will prevail despite what polls might suggest. I was quite... well - moved - is perhaps a bit too strong a word, but impressed by the number of children who were brought to the polling station... much more than I've ever seen for general, local (or Police Commissioners - hahaha) elections!

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