Sub 3h15

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  • DT19DT19 ✭✭✭
    Gerard, the faq section says-

    1. too many people getting current gfa times.
    2. to bring it in line with other races in the world majors series.
    3. women get 3000 places,cdespite fact that last year there were 31k men and 21k women completing event. Equally you have to question if 3000 women can run those times?

    I've looked on rb. 2017 rankings, if you take out elite and champs level then there are about 1500 open age men who ran a gfa. From the next 2 age groups about 900 in total. I reckon there can't be many more than 4000 men with those gfa times. So if 75% of all who can did apply then it would fill the places without them moving from the stated times. it probably is likely to be safe you want want to be within your time by a good 2 minutes. 
  • G-DawgG-Dawg ✭✭✭
    I guess overseas GFAs must also be included, therefore boosting numbers. For Boston last year I was 16 mins under my age qualifier and was comfortably in, 3 mins under didn't make it.

    Cracking run by your chum, GM, I can vouch that it's a tough course in harsh conditions. That must equate to a sub-2.50 for him?

    2.39 for winning lady when the winner usually goes around 2.21. Tough indeed.
  • DT19DT19 ✭✭✭
    I don't think London take overseas GFA. I'm sure it's UK citizens only. Might be wrong though. 
  • MsEMsE ✭✭✭
    GerardM said:

    Did anyone watch Boston today? Oh my word, it was biblical rain, they were building arks out there it was so bad. I've never seen an elite race where they ran in their jackets and masks etc. I was watching from about 5k and had a feeling Kawauchi would have a shot a win. That guy is tough, runs a fast marathon almost every month. Hard as nails and delighted for him and being an amateur too is unheard of. The ladies winner looked like she was on a training run and didn't seem fazed at all by the conditions. She ran a brilliant race. MsE - Where you watching?? A friend of mine ran it and somehow got a pb, he did 2:59 in Chicago last year and ran 2:58 today. Not many will say........... I got a pb in Boston in 2018. 

    Lovely sunshine here again today. 7k along the prom on lunch in a modest but honest pace of 6:59mm, It's meant to get quite hot by Wednesday, can't wait.


    Do bears **** in the woods? ;) Amazing and rather nice to see an American female win the Boston marathon.  American marathoners are doing well and it is pleasing to see a change in who stands on the podium. The top 5 all are virtually unknown but their country of origin suggests training was done in harsh winter weather. Specificity really does matter.  A friend of mine ran 2:45 for a massive PB.  Amazing really.
  • GerardMGerardM ✭✭✭
    DT - Thanks. Seems harsh on the men but it's a good motivator to run faster. I turn 45 next birthday, so sub 3;10 seems like an achievable target but ideally I'd like a proper crack at a marathon and sub 3 is the marker. Easier said than done though, but I'll try.

    G-Dawg - Yes it was a very good run by my mate. Looking at his splits and HR data it seems like he got it spot on. 2:50 would be a big improvement but who knows what he would have run had it been better weather. There's a very thin margin for error when it comes to pacing a good marathon. I know guys who are very quick and they've misjudged it slightly and paid the price heavily. Even the elites get it very wrong. Today's race was intriguing, the men went off at a decent clip and Kawauchi ran 4:3x for the 1st mile, he was a man on a mission but it soon settled down and a few of the faster guys including the Kenyan Kirui went for it. He paid badly towards the end as did so many others and lots of DNF's including Rupp who was one of the pre race favourites, but Kawauchi is one of the toughest, if not the quickest marathon runners out there. 2:15 is those conditions is unreal. He's usually around 2:09-10 on a very good day. I watched him run a ridiculous marathon in Arctic conditions earlier in the year and he deserved the win today. The women's race was a totally different ball game. They were jogging by their standards and the conditions seemed to affect them more, there were a few bizarre incidents, Flanagan had a Paula moment and hit the porta-loo and caught up with the chasing pack only to fade later. A few Africans made a move for the victory but crashed and burnt. Linden looked like she was cruising and ran a very smart race. I don't think we'll see anything like that again soon. It's not everyday you see marathon runners starting a world major in jackets and face masks. I'm glad I wasn't a participant as that would have a nightmare for me. Boston is a real quandary in terms of the weather. It was 31F with the windchill factor today and could easily be up in the high 70's or even higher. I'll get there one day! :wink:  
  • G-DawgG-Dawg ✭✭✭
    I can only recall one story of near perfect conditions for Boston in recent years when a few years ago it was a great temperature for running with a tailwind all the way from start to finish. Apart from that it seems a race of extremes. My social media channels are presenting me with pictures from one year ago at the very warm Boston, much warmer than Sunday's forecast, so, I'll draw on that experience and mange the race as best as possible.

    Berlin in 2016 was also warm. I checked the weather data and London will be about the same. I got my PB that day despite walking through some of the water stations to ensure I was well hydrated.

    Track session tonight. Will only do 4 miles with 2 at MP in the middle. Nice and easy.
  • SBD.SBD. ✭✭✭
    edited April 2018

    Interesting conditions at Boston - I have half a mind to enter in 2019 - at least it can't be any worse?

    Tough changes on the GFA - it would be interesting to see the age breakdown of the expected 3,000 male qualifiers - I'm surprised there are so many. 

    Thanks for all the congratulations.  The legs are in surprisingly good condition - only minor DOMs yesterday and feeling OK today but I will take another rest day today before trying a light run tomorrow.

    One of my big takes from Sunday was that the taper (apart from driving you mad) really does work and will give you that 3% increase in efficiency on the day.  So take it easy everyone this week and let the taper work for you.

    Looking forward to seeing how everyone gets on at London.  Hope the temperature on Sunday is not going to be a big issue - a cruel irony after the winter we've all trained through.

    Well done on battling through the cramps at Brighton Pibster and an excellent return on the training - bad news on the GFA changes but you could always do Brighton again.

    Are you feeling sufficiently recovered for London OO?

    nicko - 3:20 was the GFA time for me before yesterday's changes.  Just as well I didn't go for Plan C (an easy 3:19)!

    Enjoy the training in the sunshine Gerard - at least you don't have to worry about the temperature!


     

  • Hi all, I'm another one affected by the GFA changes. I'm running London on Sunday, and have gone through the whole training cycle targeted at beating 3:15 to qualify again. Now I find out I would need to do 3:05 instead. 

    I get that the organisers are entitled to make these changes, but couldn't they announce them further in advance? i.e. if you are announcing them now, change in from 2020 onwards? I also feel for those who have achieved GFA at Manchester or Brighton, they must be gutted.

    For me, just counting myself lucky to be running this year, and will try to enjoy it with the time pressure removed.
  • StevieWhStevieWh ✭✭✭

    The boston conditions looked brutal - a friend was on for sub 3 at halfway but ended up with 3.13 said he was shivering while running! Incredible for anyone to PB I those conditions.

    I think the GFA changes have upset a lot of people and I feel for anyone who thought they had qualified this spring and now hasn't. I wonder if it will cause people to push to hard on Sunday in chasing the new time? Not a good idea in the heat!

    As an open age my GFA times are now as follows for the majors - good job I want to go sub 3!

    London - 3.00 (Probably 2.57)
    Boston - 3.05 (Probably 3.01)
    Chicago - 3.10
    New York - 2.53 (That may be out of reach!)
    Tokyo - 2.45!!!
    Berlin - 2.45!

    Easy 4 miles last night to shake the legs out after a few days off running. Felt good to get back out there!

  • nicko1981nicko1981 ✭✭✭
    I've been thinking about it, and I'm going to go out with the 3hr pacer and see how long I can stick that out for.

    Sub 3 has been my super secret top AA plan this year anyway, and despite a few training setbacks, and the warmer weather, I think it is not a total impossibility. The GFA change has just given me more of a reason now.

    My PB last year hot weather in Paris, and I managed a good 2/3 of London at 3:05 pace 2 weeks later. I think being about 7kg lighter this year; and in better shape I can give the big one a go. If I fail, at least I've given it a go; and even if I slow down at 18 and drop a minute per mile, I might still squeeze a PB.

    It may be the taper madness speaking, but I've declared it publicly now. Roll on Sunday.
  • OO54OO54 ✭✭✭

    Pibster- that is a great time off the training. Glad to have you join in on the thread.

    The VLM rule changes are not unexpected with so few getting in on the ballot this year. The 3000 number throws up a lot of issues for male & female GFAs. I think a lot of qualifying men could get rejected, and wonder what they will do if less than 3000 women apply?

    SBD- I'm also planning to do Boston next year- it will no doubt be glorious sunshine! My legs feel OK after Paris thanks. I'll run tonight & Thursday and a gentle parkrun with the family on Saturday. 

    Hopefully a 3:05 is realistic for London. 

  • My very cynical mind tells me that the GFA changes, whilst bringing London more into line with other Abbott majors, is designed to make more money. Fewer GFAs means more charity and ballot places which means more ballot interest, more money spent at the expo by first timers, better PR etc etc. But hey, I'm a cynic. I'd also be concerned that some will over exert themselves in the heat on Sunday to try and reach the new goals

    Anyway, 4 miles easy yesterday (8 m/m) then 4 miles with a few strides tonight, expo Wednesday with no running, 3 miles with 2 @ MP Friday, then a final 2 miles easy on Saturday afternoon. Bingo
  • nicko1981nicko1981 ✭✭✭
    edited April 2018
    Southwarkrunner - what time are you headed to the expo tomorrow? Be good to put a face to name.

    I think the GFA targets are a little tough for men, however they must have based this on qualifying data for GFA this year, looking at the limit for numbers they want to set, so fair enough. I've read they want to address the imbalance of male/female runner split so the female times seem to remain a little soft (3:45 for 18-39 ?).

    Yes they make more money on the charity runners, and I think overall on the ballot - but also it makes it more of an accessible event - if they kept an unlimited GFA field; how many people would miss out on ballot or charity places that would be doing this for the first time; and launching a love of distance running as a result; not to mention the money that is made for those charities would be less with the charity pool reduced. The people fighting through 6/7/8 hour efforts are just as important as the club runners; and in some cases; giving a hell of a lot more effort to achieve.

    Additionally, event costs are increasing - extra policing costs for counter terrorism etc; so as a business they need to ensure the revenue stream.

    Moderate nonsense rant over.
  • StevieWhStevieWh ✭✭✭

    Nicko - I completely agree with you. I wasn't even 100% sure I wanted to do a marathon when I entered the ballot. Having got a place and thoroughly loved the training I'm already planning Autumn and Spring next year marathons! I may have never entered a marathon if I hadn't got the London place.

    I find the 6/7/8 hour runners inspirational, that is serious mental toughness to keep going for that long!

  • DT19DT19 ✭✭✭
    edited April 2018

    If I flip this around as to how I will try and benefit from this mentally on Sunday. Whilst I am targeting sub 3, obviously the conditions will play their part. When things started to go wrong in my Autumn mara and I realised sub 3 was off, I had this huge comfort blanket that I could just run sub 3.15 and still achieve something. Equally on Sunday that could have been the case. Now however 3.15 doesn't exist and if sub 3 slips away I have an incentive in that every second further I can go under 3.05 the better chance I have of it being a GFA.

    Effectively the 3.15 time provided a tired me with a very good reason once fatigued to pack it in at 18 miles. 

    Despite the temps we could still be saved by cloud cover. 15-17C on a cloudy day (particularly with reletaively low humidity) isn't too bad. If the sun is in full force it is.

    I'm not necessarily sure I agree with the amount of plaudits a 5 hour finisher gets for finishing, when someone that runs 2.55 is just sort of shrugged off as it's just what they do. I agree that I would not fancy being out there running at what would be a comparable effort for an extra 2 hours! They have my entire respect for even entertaining the idea knowing it will take that long. I just think that often these runners get more praise than a fast runner who had put an horrendous amount in to get there.

    Stevie, it looks like Nicko has answered your question. I think a lot of people in the open category and the v45-50 will decide that an extra 5 minutes is worth having a go for. I think the 10 minutes my category requires is just too much. That's a good 25 seconds a mile. Add into that the conditions and I think it could be a very messy morning for on course medical assistance.

  • @nicko1981 It will be dependent on when I manage to leave work but if I do go it will be sneaking in just before the 8pm close. I have Thursday and Friday as back up options so it will be a last minute decision. I'm aiming for Wednesday purely to miss the big crowds and DLR strike

    On GFA, don't get me wrong- I think the charity/ballot element is fantastic for the event, the sport and for the beneficiaries of the money raised and I actually agree with the decision . I just think there is a degree of self interest for the organisers and sponsors (point noted on increasing police costs). My guess is that the entry fee will increase considerably in the coming years as the VLM is probably an inelastic demand good

    The 3:45 time for women seems a bit soft but if you look at 2017 VLM results more men 18-39 made sub 3 in the race than 18-39 women making sub 3:45. Not an exact science of course but we seem to be going through a boom in women's running and many more will be making that grade. That particular qualification time may be next to move
  • nicko1981nicko1981 ✭✭✭
    I'm headed there early between meetings so maybe catch you for a pint after the race instead.

    At least this GFA time change has given everyone something to talk about other than taper and carbs!
  • PoacherPoacher ✭✭✭
    Offering more places to men than women would no doubt cause a backlash, so one can see why equal numbers is a sensible choice.  Adding this to the generally-accepted-as-easier times for women makes the playing field even less level, but it may keep sponsors and advertisers happy and perhaps encourage more diverse participation.  The new system currently lacks transparency - will it judged on the % of time inside GFA regardless of age? Or what?  Also, now that no-one is actually guaranteed entry by hitting a set time, they will presumably need to confirm GFA places before the ballot. Otherwise many people who might or might not get in as GFA will enter the ballot as a backup, which could be confusing and would surely lead to extra admin.  Unless someone has tweaked the ballot software to remove retrospectively anyone who has got in as GFA.

    I crawled off the couch this morning after several days of necking industrial quantities of man-flu drugs, and tried to run.  Which was extremely difficult due to feeling ill and weak. The head says DNS, the heart says what's the worst that can happen?  With no chance of a fast time, I may as well jog round and enjoy what might be my last VLM.

    SBD - hope I didn't cause embarrassment by sort-of outing you as a runner of a certain age.  It's a very inspiring achievement, not least the way you kept your nerve towards the end to deliver the 2.XX. Very impressive.
  • DT19DT19 ✭✭✭

    Poacher- The faqs state that you should enter the ballot and if subsequently your GFA is accepted you will be withdrawn from the ballot. This suggests that they have tweaked the software to do this.

    Again from reading faqs, it simply says that if there are more than 3000 applications the times will be reduced evenly across the age groups until they have the right number. This suggests they will have a form of software whereby total applications will be on 1 side and the starting gfa on the other. I imagine that the line will be reduced by 1 second at a time across all groups until the right hand counter hits 3000 or just below.

    I think you need to make a sensible decision taking account of the conditions as the worst case scenario is quite serious. If you can trust yourself to plod it out and not try too hard then it may be OK.


  • PoacherPoacher ✭✭✭
    Good points, I hadn't read the whole lot.  As for reducing evenly, doing it by simple seconds and minutes would produce a different result from reducing by percentage of target.  The former way would tend to penalise those with a tougher target, e.g someone who beats a 3hr target buy a minute has run a much higher percentage of target time that someone who beats e.g. 5hrs or any other higher threshold by a minute. IMO, percentages would be fairer.  Not that it really matters in the greater scheme of things.

    As for behaving sensibly, that went out of the window a long time ago.

  • DT19DT19 ✭✭✭

    Yes I see your point. The exact methodology will probably remain a source of mystery and debate and will no doubt produce the same degree of uproar when the qualifying times are realised, as when the ballot outcome is released.

    Yes, I can't believe I just said that to a man that has run nearly 100 marathons!!

  • OO54OO54 ✭✭✭
    I've long benefitted from the GFA system and always wondered why they gave an old geezer like me a guaranteed entry if I ran a decent time. I'm not at all surprised they changed the rules. I also agree with you DT19, there'll be no such thing as a take it easy option any more if you want to be sure of securing a place as a GFA. The 50/50 share male female is a clear act of positive discrimination and they are clear about that. Will be interesting to see how this one pans out and would be very difficult to reverse it once done.  
  • SBD.SBD. ✭✭✭

    Poacher - it's a tradition for threadsters to post a V50 Sub 3 time, I just left it rather late.  Just need to add the V55 time in November before the body gives up ...

    Hope everyone is working on their hydration strategy for Sunday.  At least there will be some wind.


  • I'm in the same camp as OO on the GFA - I've benefitted from it for the last few years and hope to continue to do so (3:15 is the new GFA target for me), but I can see why they've done it and will be interesting to see what results from it.

    I'm another one who's looking at Boston for next year - just got to remember to submit my application before the deadline this time around.

    Poacher - see how you feel on Saturday but rather than plod round feeling sh*t why don't you just take up a vantage position en route and enjoy watching for a change! Doesn't stop you heading to Chandos afterwards!

    I'm planning on being at Expo this evening, probably around 6/6.30pm but it'll probably be a relatively quick visit and not too damaging to the credit card (famous last words)

    Easy run yesterday followed by 15 mins easy/15 mins MP effort this morning. Felt OK without being super relaxed, but that's fine at the moment. Definitely not planning on exerting myself to hard between now and Sunday.
  • G-DawgG-Dawg ✭✭✭
    V50 benefit boy here too. However, my 3.09 in Abingdon in October should be enough to see me qualify again as that puts me into the lower age bracket. 

    For Chicago, I hit the 18-39 bracket (3.10)  B) #SpringChicken

    4 miles last night with the middle two slightly quicker than MP.

    In London today, it's already boiling! Bought some Ambre Solaire Sports Sun Spray in Boots this morning. It's Factor 50, sweat proof and lets the skin breath. £8.50.

    Expo later where I'll get some Nuun tabs or similar to put into my drinks for the rest of the week and stock up on electrolytes. Carbo-load begins easy today before ramping up Thursday and Friday. I've not been this diligent before.
    It's all in the prep! 
  • nicko1981nicko1981 ✭✭✭
    Question to the scientists - if I'm ensuring I build up electrolytes prior (Hi-5 Zero tabs) - one per day this week plus 1 morning of race; will I be OK with just water during the race? I don't really want to have to worry about tabs when running as I barely manage to keep hold of a bottle for long in the races.

    Hoping all this weather worry is for nothing and we end up with an 11 degree still day with partial cloud cover (until 2PM, then nice beer garden weather is fine by me. P20 seems to be lauded as a good suncream which won't run with sweat/water. I think It's going to be running cap weather for me - avoid the burnt bald head at the least!

    Went to the track for some easy 200s last night; feeling pretty slow but maybe a symptom of the carb depletion. Probably an easy 4 tonight and a MP tester tomorrow and that'll be the last of it.
  • StevieWhStevieWh ✭✭✭

    Nicko - How do you find the carb depletion? I know you've done it before. Its caused insomnia for me! Slowly increasing carbs today so hopefully that will return my sleep back to normal.

    I'm planning on having a couple of electrolyte gels on the day to keep the levels topped up hopefully that will be enough with a hydro tab in the morning.

  • nicko1981nicko1981 ✭✭✭
    I don't think it affects my sleep patterns at all; just makes me hungry!
  • DT19DT19 ✭✭✭
    There looks to be the beginnings of cloud and showers hitting the forecast for Sunday so hang in there this could all change a little from 20c and sunshine now.

    ive ordered a sun visor as a cap makes me too hot as I've quite thick hair. Will get some sports Sun cream as well.

    ill start loading tomorrow and will take a daily electrolyte now. 

    3 at mp over lunch then a recovery 4 with strides tomorrow and that'll be me done. Sports massage last night, he couldn't believe what good shape my legs were in compared to his last visit 2 weeks ago.
  • OO54OO54 ✭✭✭

     I also felt sluggish on a club session last night, but nothing to do with carbs- not sure why really. I'm trying to keep my weight at 12 stone before I start bulking up over the weekend. I'm hoping the heat wave in Paris will serve me well on Sunday.

     Is electrolyte basically salt?   

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