Risk of death?!?



  • Your claim that organisers of running races should be expected to have resources to get to any competitor needing aid, at any point on the course, within moments, is what's ridiculous.  As is your claim that people enter races expecting that to be the case.  You clearly understand that because you clarified your point about cycling events 'on a circuit route' - the organisers of Ride London don't have medics every 100m and they have to deal with a lot more accidents than your typical running event.

    I realise you're deliberately being provocative, but your exaggerated claims of risk of death in running events is getting a bit tiresome.

  • HA77HA77 ✭✭✭
    2308 said:

    If the resources aren't there - this thread suggests they won't be, or at any rate you're lucky if they are, and arrive soon enough 

    You are the only one suggesting the resources aren't there. It's like you've used your own thoughts to confirm your thoughts. 
  • 2308 said:

    Unfortunately - and this is partly the fault of charities getting people to compete and ill-thought-through ideas that everyone, whoever they are, should be out there trying their hand at long races - a lot of people who enter half marathons, marathons, long cycling events - simply aren't suited for the challenge and shouldn't be doing it. They lack fitness, they lack training, they have a bad diet (e.g. high cholesterol), they drink, they smoke, they haven't had a health check; someone talks them into doing a "challenge" in a few months' time, they adopt an air of bravado and "go for it", skimp the training somewhat, and maybe either they can't do it at all (they stop and walk - go and see the London Marathon at 5 hours and witness this) or they overdo it and have a heart attack.

    The people you talk about (the unfit) aren't the ones who cause medical problems at the London Marathon.  The medical director of that race has told me that the biggest draw on their resources is actually people (men, mostly) who are actually quite fit and train quite well but overestimate their ability to run a marathon - the guys who play football or rugby regularly who think a 3 hour marathon is a doddle.  The unfit, the untrained and those who, as you put it, aren't suited for the challenge don't cause many problems because they basically end up walking (as you said).  They have a miserable time, get blisters and so on, but they're not at risk beyond that.

  • JT141JT141 ✭✭✭
    Things really won't start to make any more sense the further you follow 2308 down his rabbit hole. You have to view the whole discourse as for entertainment purposes only.
  • YnnecYnnec ✭✭✭
    2308 said:

    How is what I have said ridiculous?

    Pick a post, any post; any thread.
  • YnnecYnnec ✭✭✭
    2308 said:

    This used to be a great site.

    What happened?

    According to your profile, you joined on 05/04/18.

    Are you asking what happened during the intervening time?
  • YnnecYnnec ✭✭✭
    So you never posted from 1999 to 2018?
  • YnnecYnnec ✭✭✭
    Why so coy? What was your username?
  • JT141JT141 ✭✭✭
    2308 are you the "people should be arrested for running on the road" guy?
  • Let's look at the science... There's an excellent scientific paper on this, that looked at cases of cardiac arrest occuring 2000 - 2010 in marathons and half maratons in the USA: Kim et al 'Cardiac arrest during long-distance running races. New England Journal of Medicine 2012;336: 130-140.

    CONCLUSIONS: "Marathons and half-marathons are associated with a low overall risk of cardiac arrest and sudden death. Cardiac arrest, most commonly attributable to hypertrophic cardiomyopathy or atherosclerotic coronary disease, occurs primarily among male marathon participants; the incidence rate in this group increased during the past decade."

    It also explains that basically the older men with coronary artery disease have a good chance of survival if CPR is administered, but the young men with (generally previously undiagnosed) hypertrophic myopathy (enlarged heart) don't, even with rapid treatment. 

    Additionally, "The finding that early bystander-administered CPR and use of automated defibrillators at the scene of the arrest were common for survivors of cardiac arrest underscores the notion that the race environment contributed to high resuscitation rates."  - In other words, at races you generally DO get rapid treatment and are more likely to survive than if you were alone somewhere. Unless you have hypertrophic myopathy (enlarged heart) - in which case there's really not a lot that can be done.

  • YnnecYnnec ✭✭✭
    Colin: You link to a video (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=00vZraHIcXI) in your profile that says 'Take Responsibility For Your Life'. How come you don't apply that ethos to recreational runners who choose to enter marathons?
  • HA77HA77 ✭✭✭
    So you are Colin. It's great to have you back. You've been missed. 

    Now, to go off topic a bit, due to changes with work I've been doing more running on the road recently. Do you have any thoughts on this?
  • JT141JT141 ✭✭✭
    2308 said:

    It's bad for your hips, knees and ankles. Run off road. Find nice soft ground. 

    Your opinion has softened a bit from run them down and prosecute them. It's good to see you're progressing Colin. That thread was hilarious. It's such a shame your contributions to it where cleared the last time you were permanently banned from the site.
  • This thread has made me just have to register to post instead of lurking and only reading the forums!

    I have only been running for around 18 months having taken it up initially to lose some excess weight but then found it a rather compelling past-time. I have also been fortunate in the same timeframe to have had an echocardiogram and 24hr ECG due to a pre-cautionary referral from my GP (he wanted to check out my low resting HR and occasional ectopic beats - and all looks fine). The cardiology referral did make look into this topic in some detail to better understand the risks of running though. As a result, I don't consider myself complacent about this topic.

    So, it seems that, 2308, there are two distinct risks that you are concerned about:

    1) the risk of an individual having a cardiac arrest or heart attack during a race.
    2) in the event of being unfortunate enough to have a cardiac arrest or heart attack then the length of time taken to receive medical attention.

    Two different things.

    Debra has already linked to a research paper showing the probability of dying from a cardiac arrest during a marathon is around 1 in 259,000. Pretty low odds. The odds of dying in a road traffic accident in anyone year in the UK is 1 in 20,000. Do you plan on stopping travelling in road vehicles to avoid this risk? Perhaps you already have. It would seem to be the logically response to the level of risk given your concern with the 1 in 259,000 risk for running.

    Of course, this 1 in 259,000 is averaged across the entire population of runners so if you have an underlying condition (quite possibly unknown such as cardiomyopathy) then your risk will be much higher. And this includes the "response time" factor too. Though the response time is not for UK as you point out the main underlying factor for the probability of death is having the actual cardiac event itself, not whether you get help quickly. That is just the compounding factor.

    It seems to me that the lifetime probability of dying from a cardiac event are, on average, much lower for those that regularly exercise such as participants in marathons etc. The science backs this up as far as I can tell. If you have an underlying heart condition that is another matter, as is something like taking on too much water and giving yourself an electrolyte imbalance. These are the main causes of death during races.

    Yes, there is a risk with running but it is very low for most people participating. Probably the same sort of psychology going on here as with fear of flying (which admittedly is even lower risk)....that is perceptions of risk versus benefits is being skewed by high profile incidents reported in the media.
  • I had a Cardiac Arrest in 2013 whilst out on a 10 mile training run. This was after completing a marathon a couple of months before. When it happened I was in the middle of nowhere. A young lady stopped. CPR until the paramedics arrived 10/15 mins later. Then airlifted to hospital where I was in a coma for 2 days. I did not have any signs. It turned out to be a genetic issue where my liver does not break down cholesterol. I was 39 running 30 plus miles a week for previous 18 months. 

    1. You run at your own risk;
    2. You should, perhaps, at the very least get a cholesterol test and blood pressure checked;
    3. You should train and run responsibly;
    4. And maybe we should all do a course in CPR, as you never know when you may need it.

    This year I ran the London Marathon. I disagree with what has been said about the care provided. They were brilliant in what was difficult conditions and circumstances. The organisers could not have done more for the particpants, starting from week leading up to the marathon when they started sending out advice to runners and providing extra water on the course. 
  • <blockquote class="Quote">
    <div class="QuoteAuthor"><a href="/profile/2308">2308</a> said:</div>
    <div class="QuoteText"><p>"you run at your own risk" doesn't mean anything useful unless you know what the risk is.</p></div>
    1 in 259,000 for each race. Admittedly most people won’t know that number when they enter a race but you are about ten times more likely to die in a car accident in any one year than die running a marathon.

    I think most people enter a race with the awareness that they are exposing themselves to some low risk. In the same way most people are aware they are slightly increasing risk of death everytime they eat a burger and fries.
  • JT141JT141 ✭✭✭
    Colin's taking his "no running on roads" campaign to encompass organised events now. They should ban water stations in case someone drowns.

    I like to think "Colin" is a training account for new starters at a Russian bot farm.
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