Figuring out HRmax accurately from race performance

As someone who shies away from the concept of making myself run 'til I'm sick to determine my maximum heart rate, I've been pondering how to get a good estimate (without the unreliable age-related formulae), and I've had a thought. I'm certain that this thought must have been thought a million times before by a million people but.....

Can we assume that over, say, a 10K race that everyone (or everyone who's giving it everything) will be working at a certain average percentage of working heart rate (this percentage will depend on race distance - less for longer races)? If we can, and we know our resting HR, then determining our max HR is trivial. Isn't it? Or do people race at vastly differing %WHR?

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