On the way or over egged?

RoadBear · February 2017

So I've taken a charity place at the London Marathon in April having never run any kind of distance before. In my twenties, I played a competitive team sport and deemed myself quite fit but, after kids, have done little in terms of keeping it up (eight years and counting). I'm now 37 and mid-way through a "training plan" (details below) and desperately looking for advice on pacing for the big day. My biggest problem is time - work+commute eats into my days meaning that I have not put the miles in as most training programmes suggest.

The last run was two days ago. I have eight weeks to go.

I've run the longer runs at a comfortable-ish pace but had little left at the end, especially on the 16.6 and 18.0 mi runs.

Original thoughts were somewhere between a 3hr20 and 3hr30 marathon but, despite the limited training, am wondering if I can go quicker. Clearly the most recent would put me sub 3hr15 as long as I don't blow up.

I'm looking for some advice on pacing strategy for the day - my two fears are contradictory:

i. not pushing myself enough and getting a good time for a virgin marathon runner but knowing I could have gone quicker
ii. over egging it and busting in the latter stages

I know most plans suggest a longest training run of 20 miles but I think I'll do at least one 22 miler in early March.

I've also added in my elevated gain - it's fairly hilly near me and wondering if this will naturally benefit me on race day.

Anyway, my programme so far:

Week 1:
6.6 mi - 6.55 /mi - 269ft elev gain

Week 2:
4.0 mi - 6.35 /mi - 116ft elev gain
13.1 mi - 7.22 /mi - 119ft elev gain

Week 3:
4.0 mi - 6.50 /mi - 131ft elev gain
7.1 mi - 7.16 /mi - 432ft elev gain

Week 4 (xmas excess week!)
4.2 mi - 7.01 /mi - 159ft elev gain

Week 5:
Week off for skiing!

Week 6:
5.0 mi (Treadmill) - 6.18 /mi
12.1 mi - 7.52 /mi - 762ft elev gain

Week 7:
7.0 mi (Treadmill) - 6.58 /mi
14.0 mi - 7.54 /mi - 856ft elev gain

Week 8:
4.0 mi (Treadmill) - 6.39 /mi
16.6 mi - 7.36 /mi - 296ft elev gain

Week 9:
7.5 mi (Treadmill) - 6.39 /mi

Week 10:
5.0 mi (Treadmill) - 6.18 /mi
* Then I broke two ribs!
11.6 mi - 7.38 /mi - 762ft elev gain (run cut short due to pain)

Week 11:
Nothing due to ribs

Week 12:
4.0 mi - 6.27 /mi - 131ft elev gain
18.0 mi - 7.31 /mi - 923ft elev gain

cougie · February 2017

That's not much mileage for an ambitious time.

Do you have a recent half marathon race that you can use as an estimate ? Otherwise you're just plucking figures out of the air.

Your paces are good for the long runs - 3.15 pace is a shade under 7.30 min a mile.
Thats roughly what you are doing currently. If you do run at race pace for all of the long runs - you'll be knackered for the race and have given your best in training. Slow it down.

A marathon is a long way - you may feel good after 16m but you need to do another 10 miles and it's those last miles that are the killer. Go out too fast and you pay for it massively.

I'm aiming for something similar to you - but its probably my 20th marathon or something and my mileage is much bigger.

NickW2 · February 2017

Sounds like you have a relatively similar background to me - I got into running to do London last year, having previously never really done any running but play squash to a good standard and considered myself fit. You have more speed than me, but it's very low mileage. On your shorter runs, eg 4-5 miles at 6:15-6:30ish pace, are you flat out or could you carry on for another few miles?

To be frank, you won't be doing something close to your potential given your training so far. You may well still do a very respectable time though, it's up to you at the end of the day what to go for. Would you rather aim for 3:10-15, but have the risk that the wheels come off and you end up with 3:45 (or slower), or would you be happy doing 3:25-30?

I would expect that it will still feel very tough towards the end, however fast or slow you run it. Good luck

HA77 · February 2017

I don't think that's enough mileage to run a good marathon. You might get a decent time but I think you're almost guaranteed a tough last 10km or so. When you do a 20 mile run as a part of a proper program it's usually on tired legs from the other 30-80 miles you've done earlier in the week. All your long runs are done fresh so you won't get the same effect. It also makes it difficult to compare your long run pace with someone else doing 60 miles per week.

I'm a bit the same in that I never want to feel like I've not pushed myself enough, so I know where you're coming from. If you want to go for 3:15, that's fine but you should be prepared for the fact that you might really struggle at the end.

RoadBear · February 2017

Thank you all. You each raise some very good points which I will digest.

Some direct responses:

Cougie: Half marathon - nope. You have the sum total of my running activity above. I was thinking that I might run a 10 miler mid-week this week (Thursday or Friday) then a half marathon at a pace as my long run this weekend (Sunday)
NickW2: Pacing on shorter runs - probably a little more in me if outside. Those treadmill ones though, I've just about lost the will to live purely due to the boredom
HA77: really interesting point about the 20 miler on tired legs!

Interesting that no-one commented on the elev gain - does it make any difference?

Perhaps I'll try and up the miles / slow the pace and make a call on the final strategy a bit closer to the race itself.

Magna Carter · February 2017

not just 'up the miles'... you need to be running double or even treble your current mileage for the times you are targeting.... which will require you to slow down or you'll break!... While i'm a 'bit' older than you, I'm still aiming at 3:30 at London and like Cougie, am running 50 or 60 miles a week for the next few weeks.

eg last week

mon - rest
tues - 6M intervals am, 4.5M slow eve
wed - 10M easy am, swim 1M pm
thur - 7M with 5 at 10k pace am, 5M easy pm
fri - swim pm, plus 15M gentle cycling
sat - parkrun 5k and 11M easy run
sun - 17M run at mara pace plus 30secs/mile (bit faster than i'd normally run this distance - but its my last faster long run - now they get longer and slower)

Your elevation gain helps, in fact committed runners will seek out hills as strength sessions, but its still about miles under your belt... there is no short cut!... as HA77 says, with your current approach, the last few miles of your marathon aren't going to be very pleasant!

cougie · February 2017

Blimey - if that's all the running you're doing - it's incredible.

Week 1:
6.6 mi - 6.55 /mi - 269ft elev gain - that would place you well in a lot of 10ks. Even higher if you're a lady ? (after the kids ?)

I don't really track elevation for running - what goes up must come down so unless it's positively mountainous I'd not put too much thinking into it.

HA77 · February 2017

Elevation will make a difference but it's hard to make an offhand judgement about how much difference it'll be. Just like it's hard to judge how good your long run pace is as you're always fresh.

Given your non-running background and only running twice a week, I think running 3:30 would be a pretty good achievement. Without some other race results or a proper training program I don't think anyone will be able to answer your question.

muddyfunster · February 2017

I did have a comment about the elevation gain, but it wasn't that helpful so I shelved it - but since you mentioned it again, your elevation gain isn't that different to mine and doesn't make me go "cor! blimey, that's hilly 'guv". I don't think it gives you a tremendous amount of leeway pace wise and anyway that assumes a perfectly flat marathon course.

If you want a rough guide to the effect of elevation gain, Kellogg's "rule states that every 10 feet of elevation change alters your time by 1.74 seconds, regardless of the horizontal distance covered. So, six-minute mile effort over a mile which gains 70 feet should be about 12 seconds slow; likewise, a 10k which drops 300 feet should be about 52 seconds fast." - from https://runnersconnect.net/running-training-articles/hill-running-training/

DT19 · February 2017

my Garmin data says London 2016 had 462 feet of elevation gain so about 17 foot a mile. Therefore London is broadly flat. I wonder therefore if all that climbing will be more a hinderance than help as your muscles will work differently on flat for that much time.

most post London stories are 'i was on for sub xxxx until 20 miles' Unfortunately it's the last 6 that hurt. you can't usually cheat a marathon with such low mileage. Also in training, max out at 22 and not beyond.

cougie · February 2017

I can't get over how fast all of those paces are for your running so far. I've not hit those paces in any runs this year - apart from the odd parkrun.

Surely you did some running before the training began ?

rodeoflip · February 2017

Your times are very fast, particularly for a "new" runner. But the marathon isn't about speed, and when you look around at London, there's slow folks and there's fast folks, but the suffering and the determination becomes apparent from about Canary Wharf onwards. You're only running twice per week, which is good for injury prevention but most people thinking about sub-3:15 will be running more like 5 times per week, and maybe 40-50 miles per week. You're maybe naturally fast, but I would worry that the lack of miles will come back to bite you in the last 6 miles or so. I understand your dilemma re pacing - best solution would be to run a half marathon, like now, while you still have plenty of recovery time before the marathon. Doesn't have to be an organised race (although this would give a more representative time), just has to be 13.1 miles as fast as you can, you should be pretty tired afterwards. There are plenty of calculators out there, but double your time for a half and add 20 minutes and you won't be far wrong.

FWIW, this is your first marathon - I would err on the side of caution a little. Maybe set off at 3:30 pace and review at 20 miles? If you're still feeling good, you can get the hammer down, if not then you've not burnt yourself out completely and should have enough left in the tank to get you home. 3:30 pace also makes the arithmetic easy when you're checking your time against mile markers (8 mins per mile). Or maybe slightly more ambitious, maybe 3:25? You're going to get a PB as long as you finish, and it's very rare to hear anyone saying after a marathon that they could have / should have gone out faster and they have plenty left in reserve. Much more common is the other extreme, where zombies shuffle along the embankment, muttering about the wheels falling off coming back along the Highway, and maybe, just maybe they should have taken it easier from the start.

Don't underestimate the challenge of a marathon. There's a big difference between a 18 mile training run and the full 26.2, and all sorts of things can & do happen, and while you clearly have the speed, the endurance needed from 20 miles onwards might not be there without training for a longer period and over more miles.

To put this in context - you said you're 37. At age 40, the good for age time is 3:15 - this means that the top 5-10% of runners in their 40's are likely to achieve this time, and if they do, they qualify for automatic entry into London for the next 2 years. Not to be rude, but you're only three years away from that age, you've never run a marathon before and your training has gone well, but you've done less miles and less runs per week than most, I think 3:15 is a big ask. My PB after 10 marathons is 3:09:58 (the 2 seconds do matter!), and I've run over 400 miles so far this year, off a base of 1800 last year. I hope it goes well for you, and London will be an amazing experience whatever happens, but don't push yourself too hard, learn from the mistakes that people here have all already made in the past!

HA77 · February 2017

I think the fact that you played competitive sport ehen younger has really helped with you speed. I also think you can blag your way to a good half marathon time but there are no shortcuts for a marathon. If you haven't done the miles in training, you'll struggle at the end.

cougie · February 2017

Even so. 8 years away and a half hours marathon run in week two? In what 1.30 ish?

This isn't making sense.

RoadBear · April 2017

Thanks everyone for their very informative responses; there wasn't much said that didn't ring true but I thought I would post to complete the story for any other first time runners looking for some advice and/or runners seeking a training plan with reduced time to 'put the miles in'.

To reconfirm, I have not run before. My sport in my twenties was hockey but have not played that for eight years and in the intervening years added about 1 stone to my weight. By marathon day, this had come off.

The remainder of my training plan was as follows:

Week 13
6.2 mi (Treadmill) - 6.31 /mi
20.1 mi - 7.54 /mi - 823ft elev gain

Week 14
3.1 mi (Treadmill) - 6.08 /mi
5.0 mi (Treadmill) - 6.28 /mi
15.1 mi - 7.36 /mi - 1,030ft elev gain

Week 15
Away skiing!

Week 16
6.2 mi - 7.11 /mi - 253ft elev gain
3.8 mi - 6.33 /mi - 190ft elev gain
21.5 mi - 7.37 mi - 650ft elev gain

Week 17
6.2 mi (Treadmill) - 6.22 /mi
18.3 mi - 7.18 /mi (Actually did 8.2 mi - 7.11 /mi followed by a 19.20 parkrun followed by 8.1 mi - 7.44 /mi)

Week 18
3.1 mi (Treadmill) - 6.02 /mi
6.5 mi - 6.50 /mi - 214ft elev gain
23.3 mi - 7.41 /mi - 711ft elev gain

Week 19
3.3 mi (Treadmill) - 5.54 /mi
7.8 mi - 6.28 /mi - 148ft elev gain
13.9 mi - 7.36 /mi - 403ft elev gain

Week 20
4.5 mi - 7.27 /mi - 232ft elev gain
8.1 mi - 6.55 /mi - 279ft elev gain
11.0 mi - 6.53 /mi - 322ft elev gain

Marathon week
4.0 mi - 7.12 /mi - 121ft elev gain
2.3 mi - 7.58 /mi - 71ft elev gain

I completed the marathon yesterday in 3hrs 13min and 31secs.

Despite the warnings above (which played heavily on my mind) my plan up until the morning of the race was to give it a go and try to run 7.20-7.25 pace consistently to deliver 3hr15. If I faded, then I would do my best to hang on as best I could.

I ended up running the first four miles at 7.02 pace! before calming myself down and from 5-20 ran between 7.13 and 7.26. As if it had been predicted, it then got tough... the following miles were 7.32, 7.40, 7.47, 7.50 and on mile 25 I ran an 8.11 pausing to walk for 5m before forcing myself to get going again. Mile 26 I ran a 7.07 and the last 0.2 miles at 6.43. I REALLY wanted a sub 3.15!

The legs are a bit wobbly today but not as bad as expected and its the blisters that are causing most pain: they started to come through about mile 10!

It was an amazing experience and I'm now starting to consider myself as a runner, counting down the days until the ballot opens for next year and wondering if it is possible to go sub 3!

NickW2 · April 2017

Well done, glad you enjoyed it. That's a great result, especially considering your training. The first few miles are downhill at London so not too bad going slightly faster. Sounds like you really gave it everything on the last mile as well. I'm sure with some more focused training you can continue to improve.

rodeoflip · April 2017

RoadBear, well done sir, I take my hat off to you. Sub-3:15 was a big ask and I didn't think you'd do it, but you're obviously made of strong stuff. The truth of the marathon is that beyond about 20 miles, everyone is hurting badly (just look at the faces of people around you at the time), and it takes determination to keep going when your body is screaming at you to stop. You must have really wanted that time, and glad you did it. If you want to go sub-3, then your speed is already there, you just need to work more on distance, so you can maintain that pace for longer with less effort.

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