Marathon stats - part 2

[Deleted User]

OK - there seems to be a reasonable amount of interest so I thought I would produce some more details. Remember these are for the Frankfurt marathon. In this case I have grouped males and females together. Each of the age groups quoted with the exception of the under 20's is for the age range up to the next category e.g. everyone in age group "30" would be aged between 30 and 35. All time stats are based on net times (chip).

First of all, spread (age group and percentage of field).

Under 20 - 48 (0,7%)
Age Group 20 - 918 (12,7%)
Age Group 30 - 1,250 (17,3%)
Age Group 35 - 1,762 (24,3%)
Age Group 40 - 1,401 (19,3%)
Age Group 45 - 950 (13,1%)
Age Group 50 - 504 (7,0%)
Age Group 55 - 201 (2,8%)
Age Group 60 - 143 (2,0%)
Age Group 65 - 54 (0,7%)
Age Group 70 - 10 (0,1%)

I wonder whether the "age group 20" participants would be the same in all races - remeber this covers a 10 year band unlike the other categories which cover 5. Perhaps they have better things to do with their time or perhaps we will see a decline in marathon participation over the next 10 - 15 years.

.......continued.

[Deleted User]

Finsihing times by age group (average times, figure in brackets is the percentage that each group was slower in the second half than the first):

Under 20 - 4:01:16 (9,9%)
Age Group 20 - 4:00:27 (12,3%)
Age Group 30 - 4:01:23 (11,6%)
Age Group 35 - 3:59:28 (12,3%)
Age Group 40 - 3:59:06 (11,6%)
Age Group 45 - 4:02:08 (12,1%)
Age Group 50 - 4:07:10 (12,1%)
Age Group 55 - 4:10:18 (12,1%)
Age Group 60 - 4:21:36 (13,1%)
Age Group 65 - 4:24:32 (14,2%)
Age Group 70 - 4:28:36 (15,1%)

Some interesting factors from this analysis mainly about average finishing times that show that up to age 50 (i.e. including the Age 45) there is very little variation in average finishing times which supports the view of the marathon as an endurance event. Even after 50 the decline is quite slow until age group 60. Interestingly the age group 70 time is only 12% slower than the fastest group which suggests that, provided you can stay injury free, you can still run some good times.

However, the analysis does suggest that people don't become better at pacing with age, with the youngest group being the best and the oldest the worst. In the young group I put this down to excess of energy rather than any great strategic thinking. In the older age groups I put the deterioration down to the "slipper effect" i.e. during the second half of the race there is a fair chance they actually forgot where they were or had to stop for a cup of cocoa.

old father tim

Is the "slipper effect" compounded by the 'bladder effect' ? (just a joke Dad..!!)

Excellent stuff Martin. Hope for me yet as Mr/Ms average "baby boomer" (40-45) seems to lead the way with 3.59.06.

Just shown these ego boosting stats to my missus but she remains uncovinced. Besides pointing out these were mostly "Germans" (!), she asks if "endurance" also includes a big "experience" weighting for older runners ; ie all those miles stacked-up over the years

Cruely, she has dashed my expectations by pointing out this not applicable if you take up running post 40.....

[Deleted User]

I think the under 20 age group covers 18-19 year olds as anyone under this age is not allowed to compete. Or is it 17 when you can? Anyway totally immaterial to me now aged 39........

[Deleted User]

Mr Stumpy - you are correct the under 20 is 18 and 19 year olds. My point was that the age 20 group covers all those between 20 and 30 which make up just under 13% of the field. A little worring when the 30-40 age group (i.e. the age group 30 and age group 35) cover over 40%.