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Calling the Great Sages that reside in the training forum
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Just a bit of marathon advice.
I'm currently running the best I have ever run. I returned from a horrendous year of injury after injury last year to start running again on Christmas eve after another 3 month lay off. Since then I have gone from strength to strength, running a 2.19.40 at an undulating 20 miler 4 weeks ago and this morning I ran a 2.15.55 20 miler on a more testing course.
I'm feeling good about myself and I'm in 2 minds whether to go for a sub 3 @ London or play safe with a 3.05. My previous 2 Londons have been 3.42 and 3.12.
I'm currently running the best I have ever run. I returned from a horrendous year of injury after injury last year to start running again on Christmas eve after another 3 month lay off. Since then I have gone from strength to strength, running a 2.19.40 at an undulating 20 miler 4 weeks ago and this morning I ran a 2.15.55 20 miler on a more testing course.
I'm feeling good about myself and I'm in 2 minds whether to go for a sub 3 @ London or play safe with a 3.05. My previous 2 Londons have been 3.42 and 3.12.
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Comments
You did accidentally run a marathon in training didnt you?
Sub 3
you know you can
Looking at http://www.teamoregon.com/publications/effort.pdf
20 miles at 2:13:54 equates to 2:58:54
Adding 2:01 to the 20 miles time will add slightly more to the predicted marathon time.
Were you racing the latest 20 miler or well within yourself?
But you are in heavy training, so you could expect to be able to reduce that 20 mile time if you targeted a 20 mile race to run as hard as you could with a good 3 week taper.
What you do know is that you can readily run more than 13.1 miles in 6:48. So how about planning to run the 1st half a bit slower than that, say 6:55.8's and see how you go chasing a small -ve split. If it feels a bit hard you'd still be in good shape top meet your 3:05 goal.
You could even increase your -ve split target by assuming that your 6:48's from the 20 miler were worth 6:44's at London. If you feel confident about that you could push your 1st half target to 91:48 (~6:59's). That would give you a 51%/49% -ve split which Uncle Frank believes to be close to ideal.
Just a thought...
Ye.
If I'd done sub 2:16 (i.e. better than 6:48 pace) on an accurately measured, tough, 20 mile course, I'd be convinced I was capable of sub 3 hours (6:50 pace) for a marathon. Your confidence is high & you're feeling good - go for it.
1. Go for 3.05, do it comfortably, then think `I wish I'd...'
2. Go for 3.00, can't quite make it but think, well I tried, WILL do it next year. Nothing ventured, nothing gained.
3. Go for 3.00, do it and feel brill.
I managed to go from 3-15pb to a 2-54pb from an autumn to spring, so 3-12 to 3-00 is well withing reach. Don't set yourself low barriers.
Good luck.
The advantage is that if its not going too well on the day you can choose to keep an even pace ans still make a good time. But if its going well then you can accelerate and make your target time of sub 3.
... So i'd say go for it
Best of luck
Will
I'm going to go with the flow and sub 3 or bust. But as WW & Ye Hippo point out, it realy is a border line thing.
As Bruce Lee said "When you watch one star. When you focus on one star. You miss the heavenly glory that fills the sky, but, you can touch that one star"
go for it mate. I think as pointed out above that if you can run a 20 miler at that pace in training that you're definitely on for a sub-3:00 after 3 full weeks taper.
Barnsley,
really pleased to hear that you took 21 minutes off your marathon PB, I'm plannning on doing the same in 4 weeks!!!
With your Bramley time over 20miles, you should be able to run flat London with crowd support 5-6 minutes quicker, leaving the mere formality of a sub 45 last 10k.
Better to aim for 2:59:59 and miss by 2 seconds than aim for 3:05:00 and beat it by 2 seconds......
Good luck big man!
I'm in the same boat. I found that I had a stress fracture 5 weeks before last years FLM and have been building up for this year's run since I could start running again (July 2002).
Training has been going well and I've got PBs for 10km (39:10 in Feb) and half marathon (84:11 in Fleet yesterday). I was telling myself, throughout the training that sub 3:15 was my target but revised that to sub 3:10 when it was going well.
My biggest run has been 20 miles, done in a very comfortable evenly-paced 2h25min and I'll be doing a 22miler next week. I was pleased that I could hold back, following the oft-given advice of running the long runs slower than normal.
The concern is that if I go bold and aim for sub 3, it could all go wobbly and I'll blow up with 5 miles to go. On the other hand, I could take it, ahem, easy and aim for a comfy 3:10, which i reckon I could do.
I'm always sceptical about the claim that the crowd will carry you for a few miles. The crowd can certainly help with the mental aspects but they can't top up glycogen stores at 22 miles!
the bat
Best of luck,
TR.
Is another factor here the "what are you capable of" one... - ie besides your current form, a 3.42 FLM followed by 3.12 suggests a sub 3 'bottoming-out' a definite runner ?
Batfink, if you fancy having a bash at as well let me know. I don't talk when I'm running but it would be good to have someone else along for the ride. We could both help each other out when the going gets tough.
You beat me by 50 seconds at Bramley and last time out I managed 2:59:44 on a hillier course than London - so no excuses then!
Ye.
PS - I did run Bramley as -ve splitter - 73min 1st lap, 67:30 2nd lap and I was still recovering from an over-indulgent Xmas. That weight has now gone and the speed has returned. So I have just the same issue as you. The Taunton hills will cost me about 3 mins, but do I still shoot for another sub-3? I'll probably decide later, like 20 miles into it!
I will hold judgement on going for 2:59:59 till after Monday, when I'm doing 3 laps of Richmond park (total of 22miles). I'll try and aim for 7:10 - 7:20 pace and see how it feels. After that, i'll have to make a decision.
Since I've done all my marathon training on my own, I'm not in the habit of talking either so if I do decide to think big, I won't be wittering on for the duration! Also, i think I put down a conservative 3h30 as a predicted time when I filled in my GB place which will mean I'll need to sneak forward a pen or two at the start.
the bat