Pacing / Target Advice For Rotterdam

[Deleted User]

Hi All,

 I'm having a crisis of confidence and was hoping to pick some brains!

I've done multiple marathons (1st in 2005) and the last was Oct 2010 in a PB of 2:58.  I then took a year off excercise totally - not planned, it just happened - and started back again properly in Dec.  I've been averaging 50 - 60 mpw since then but haven't managed to get in any warm up races and I'm a bit unsure of a target time and pacing strategy.  I also missed a week or so because of hols and a couple of long runs with domestic emergencies.

My original target was to get home in the 2:50 - 2:55 range.  I did 15@PMP last week and came home in 1:41:46 so I know I am in ok shape and should be well on for the sub 3.  2:50 though looks beyond me so I'm probably going to gun for 2:55 - does that sound fair?  How should I pace it - set out at 6:41/mile and hope for the best or do 6:51/mile to half way and hope to push on?

I know it's just taper madness but all help and advice appreciated!