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Are you inspired by Alex Vero's ambitions, or slightly insulted?

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    HillyHilly ✭✭✭
    Huge shame that he did not achieve his current marathon potential which I believe by reading is around 2:40. Today's heat would require going out at a much slower marathon target pace and doing the best you can. If he set out at 2:40 pace from the start then his inexperience will have made him blow up.

    Excellent posts all round. It's been interesting reading.
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    Interestingly I was thinking of the same sort, American football players to be precise as a counter-example, whereby they're huge, none of it is fat, but they are very likely to be able to break 36.

    and the answer is yes, I do think that they would be able to go sub 36. I think it would be extremely difficult, but possible.

    10 years is a long time, enough time to totally change a body type, for a start the 16 stone can come down, muscle mass would need to be lost etc., but they wouldn't be 16 stone at the end. Those 16 stoners at the moment couldn't run a sub 36 10k, but then they haven't done any training at all!

    Unfortunately this is question that we can never answer adequately ( because as you say, people will always claim that the training was wrong), but for me, if Jack Daniels cannot take someone and turn them into a 36 minute 10k runner then I will willingly concede that I wrong!

    I still don't think that after ten years of intensive and well planned endurance training you would not have a sub 36 10k runner.
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    Tom.Tom. ✭✭✭
    Bryn, I take your point. I've probably wandered off topic slightly. The thrust of my comments was in denial of the proposition that "all you have to do is to want it badly enough". The other thing that compromises the football analogy is that it isn't quantitative. The market place for aspiring footballers is very crowded and success may be influenced by availabilty of places - a bit like university entrance.

    The proposition that Pug advances can easily be denied by using Themoabird's black swan approach. However to take that line is simply to challenge how rigorously Pug has defined his terms of reference rather than the conjecture that "most well conditioned males in good health" (my qualification) are capable of running sub 35 mins........

    Still accepting the above, subjectively I don't think that the running of sub 35m 10K (or sub 50min 10M for that matter) is as easy as Pug suggests. Firstly there's a tendancy for anyone who has done it to say that it's doable - and I've been guilty of that in the past. As I said in an earlier posting the doing of it at my advanced age now eludes me, despite my best efforts. You could summarise my failings as being down to old age despite my best training efforts. However old age is simply a combination of physiological conditions,. Bearing in mind we don't all age at the same rate, it could be that some people are simply old before their time. Or to put it another way they display physiological conditions (inability to develop mitrochondria, poor capilliarisation, sluggish LT and VO2max response to training etc)that are more commonly found in older runners. If you recognise that high adaptabilty to training stress is what sets high achievers appart, it is equally valid to suggest that low adaptabilty, due to poor physiology, defines low achievers.

    From my own experience my training efforts whilst "raging against the dying of the light" demonstrate that no amount of effort can make up for physiological shortcomings.
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    In a strange way I have more sympathy for him now he has crashed and burned like many of us have before. It's like he's earning his stripes as a proper runner rather than just posting numbers on a website asking for cash donations.

    Pug - if the conditions in June are similar, do you intend to doggedly stick to 2:36 pace for as long as you can or revise your goal in the light of the conditions? In 2005 I knew I was in 2:37 shape and stuck doggedly to that until it all unravelled from 14 miles onwards. Had I run to the conditions I believe I could have gone around 2:41, losing 4 mins instead of 14.

    There is a runner at a local club who has come into running after 15 years of body building. I can see his muscle mass (and believe me it is all muscle) falling race by race and his times dropping too.
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    Themoabird- can't remember marathon time but 1:21 for HM without really training much at all (had spent 7 weeks in a boat doing nothing but rowing), which is approximately equal to 36:24 for 10k (McMillan) so sub 36 would easily be accomplished in a ten year training period.

    Continuing with professinal sports people, Ronnie O'Sullivan has run around (I think under) 35 minutes and last I heard wanted to run around 33 minutes.
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    BR- we've got a lad in my training group at home. Huge lad, must be at least 14/5 stone, absolutely dwarves me, he's about 6'3/4 I think, he's in around 35 minute shape now. Absolutely silent running as well. I'm constantly churning over with a very high stride rate and heavy footfalls, he floats along with strides at least twice as long probably more!

    He's improving a lot and will run very quickly...
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    From Alex Vero's Website:

    PARIS MARATHON :- 3 hours 11 minutes

    Having dedicated the last 14 months of my life towards this project the result in Paris was heart wrenching. I was in the shape of my life, felt full of energy if not a little nervous before the start, but was safe in the knowledge that I had done everything asked of my to achieve my revised target time of 2 hours 36 minutes.

    It was a hot day in Paris, but I had prepared for this after succumbing to the heat in Palma in October and had learnt my lessons of the importance of hydration the hard way. I had gone to such lengths that I had a soaked cap waiting a few km past the half way mark to deal with the sun. I met up with my friend Hugh from the Serpentine Running Club and ran the first 10km eight seconds under my target and felt great heading up to the park. At 12 km I felt a slight twinge at the top of my left leg in the ITB/Hip rejoin but thought that I would be able to run it out. At 17km it was still there, if not a little worse and I stopped to stretch and have a pee.

    After a minute of stretching I got right back into it, thinking that I would be able to make up the time in the last 12km but to stick to the pace that I had been going at. 3km latter I had to stretch again which by this stage was becoming indicative of a small tear becoming exacerbated by continuing. Still I though I would just grim and bear it as I was feeling very fresh still and felt I might be able to get around in 2 hours 45 minutes.

    At 22km I was reduced to walking and had to get on the ground to stretch it out and should have thrown in the towel but for some reason I did not. I thought of the members of my family who have given so much support to me from the start and thinking of them stationed along the next 10km waiting and willing me on, I felt a sense of pride that no matter what happened in the next 20km I would finish this race and that at least in their eyes I could hold my head up high.

    The next 20km was the most painful and helpless experience of my life with a combination of; walking, jogging and stretching I finally made it to the finish line. I felt unbelievably frustrated. I had in the past thought of every scenario that would have prevented me from reaching this time but injury never past my mind. I might have had a few niggles over the last 14 months but nothing at all in the last 6 weeks and never a problem with the ITB/Hip area. To say the least I am absolutely gutted!

    Sitting here writing this after returning home on the EuroStar from Paris I not only am in a lot of pain in the ITB/Hip area but I have a splitting pain down my right shin caused by the compensation of shifting my weight while running on my right leg to take some of the pressure off the left leg.

    At this time after this setback at the moment to tell you the truth I don't know what I am going to do. It was a failure but an inconclusive failure. I am going to the physio tomorrow and will have a better understanding of how it is and whether I will be able to run in the near future. To give up after all the dedication and hard work in training though after the nature of the failure would be foolish but when an if I can run again is undecided.

    Although very frustrating I am very aware that it really is not the end of the world. To put this into perspective I have a friend who has been very unwell, I thought of him out on the course today while I was limping along through the last few km. He is the bravest man I know, he has been through hell, his battle is for survival mine is to run a fast marathon!

    Thank you very much to all those that have supported me throughout and good luck to those running running in London next week. May I wish you far better luck then me.
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    I guess my intuition about this is as Swan Song's. I think sub-35 (and perhaps sub-36) is not as easy as many people are suggesting.

    And partly this is because I've seen people train incredibly hard, and fail to achieve it. The particular fella I'm thinking of did crack 37 minutes on his training regimen, but never 36. He wasn't enormous, but he was naturally well-built.

    Cracknell is impressive, though. But, you know, this is an olympic standard athlete. What about people with his build who are not that standard? Can they do it?
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    Barnsleyrunner Hi matey, well, I'm man enough to admit, I'm not in 2:36:50 shape, so to do that would be suicicide.

    I've neither trained hard enough or put the dedication, both timewise etc etc that is required. However, I'm doing Ranelagh Half on the 13th May and will be tapering... whatever Iget I'll add 20 seconds per mile and set out at that pace.

    However, if I get to Edinburgh and it's 28C, then to be honest with you, I probably won't run... I don't see the point for myself... it won't be proving a damn thing for me to go out at 6:30 pace and do 3 hours, why> I want to be going out and doing quicker than last time and I know that I suffer in 5 miles in hot races never mind 26.2 miles...


    Pug
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    Tom- sorry missed your post.

    Agree totally that it's not quite as easy as some suggest.

    But male, not serious obesity problems, 18-35 on a ten year intensive training program with nothing to do but train (so allowing weights, diet, sleep patterns, SAQ training, core work, altitude training) to be done, I think they'd crack 36 easy. Which has been my proposition from the start.

    BR- I also agree that it makes it easier to empathise, the person who claims he's going to move mountains whilst flattening molehills is never pleasant, the person who then comes up to a mountain does his best and fails- I think we can all empathise with.

    It's interesting that those who as a whole shot down Vero have now subdivided yet again to argue about where is the level where talent becomes needed...
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    But male, not serious obesity problems, 18-35 on a ten year intensive training program with nothing to do but train (so allowing weights, diet, sleep patterns, SAQ training, core work, altitude training) to be done, I think they'd crack 36 easy. Which has been my proposition from the start.

    In a nuttshell so to speak :-)


    Pug
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    Ooooo, this could be fun. Continuing in the vein of the thread. Given that everyone can run sub 36 for 10k (well that is a given isn't it?, not really much of a debate at all there!), there must be a point at which talent comes into play.

    What do you personally think is or was your ultimate potential over...
    5k, 10k, marathon?

    Given unlimited training time and physio support but no altitude (because it's such an unknown variable).

    Enjoy!
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    I've run just under 34 minutes for 10km. I think that was very close to my potential. I think this even though I was able to run close to 35 minutes within a couple of months of starting to run. It seems that I adapt very quickly to training, but then get very little extra adaptation over time. Plus I get injured. I think this is for genetic/physiology reasons.
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    I reckon if I didn't really think I couldn't do a 32.xx 10k, I wouldn't be running now... dont' see the point. I wanna die knowing I've done my best and feel as though I'm way off it. I'm still a fat git... carrying a stone of muscle/blubber that needs to go... recently ran 28:06 ina 5 miler with no tapering... I think within the next 18 months, if I can't run 32.xx I'll retire!!! and kill myself lol... no pressure then :-)


    Pug
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    I suspect there are a lot of healthy young men from a variety of athletic backgrounds who could go out and run a sub-36 minute 10k on muscle-power alone, with very little running-specific training. Not all, not even most. But a significant number.

    And that very few of them will have the capacity to make the physical and psychological adaptations that would allow them to maintain that sort of pace over marathon distance, no matter how long or hard they trained.

    Talent, genetics, whatever we choose to call it, definitely plays a part.

    But a year ago I'd have bitten the hand off anyone who had held out a lifetime marathon PB of 4.14.59, and cited "genetic limitation" as my reason. The reality of progressive adaptation to training hadn't sunk into my head. Now, in response to your question about potential, Bryn, all I can say is "I don't know, but I'm pretty sure I won't ever be picked for the Olympics."

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    On the subject of weight, I was party to a conversation with a middle-aged Irish fellow at an open track meet in Tonbridge last Monday. The guy didn't look much like a runner - seemed to have a bit of a beer belly and was more bothered with looking after his two young kids than any of the running.
    You'd forgive me for being a little disbelieving when he dropped into the conversation that he'd recently run 15 dead over 5km, and 'jogged' under 9 minutes for a 3000m, but wasn't doing any strucured training at the moment.
    And the stories got better - wind back the clock a few years and he was running 13:29 for 5000m despite weighing 13 stone (the weight bit I did believe - and he wasn't especially tall either!).

    Anyway - kind of forget about it, but when bored at work I looked him up and found his times to be legit. I'm sure Bryn, Tom etc know who it is I'm talking about.

    So ok, not 16 stone, but if he was my height an his build he'd probobaly be 14+ - and we're talking one of Britain's top 5000m runners - not a sub 36 10km aspirant. If you have the talent, you'll run the times.

    Bryn - regarding your latest question, I'd be interested to compare notes with your good self. As you're probably aware, we have very similar pbs, achieved in a similar timescale but using different methods, so I'm curious what you think! The guy training me is of the opinion that I'll run a frighteningly fast 10,000m this summer, but I fear that he's just so talented that he doesn't understand how hard it is for the less gifted - if I was training him to swim, it would probably be the same.
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    JEJ - No wonder his nickname is "The Bull" :)
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    Good grief what a discussion. I would sincerely love to think that one day I could progress from my pathetic 49 min 10K to 35 ish (I'm female, curvy and heading for 40 by the way). But the truth of the matter is that I just don't believe it. Mainly because it has taken SO much work to get from 53 mins down to 49 which is why I kind of gave up and started running marathons. At least then I come higher up the rankings.

    the original discussion i got caught up in on this subject was one where I mentioned genetics in passing. Purely as a factor - not as a quantifiable, just as one of the factors contributing to athletic success. Wow - couldn't believe the scorn heaped upon my head. 'how on earth does genetics come into it, genetics are just an excuse given by the guy who came second etc etc'.

    And by the way if anyone wants to come up here (Glasgow) and train me up so that i do run a 10K in 35 mins - roll on up, I would be thrilled.

    re edinburgh marathon - last year it was bloomin scorching and i did what poor Vero did and got injured half way and then spent the second half limping/joggin in agony.
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    GA- see earlier post I made about how for males it is a reasonable target but for females it's closer to running 32 mins.

    I'm not as up on female times, but thankfully we have AW where it suggests 35=41 for ladies, and just from personal experience I would have said 36=42 so about right.

    Do you think that with ten years training supervised by a world expert with access to physio and massage every day, no need to work or deal with household stresses, just train, including perfect nutrition and leading experts on things like weight loss, weight training and running form? you couldn't drop 7 minutes? I think you might be surprised! As someone who struggled down from 61 minutes and was stuck at 49/50 for two years I never thought I could run 33 for a long while..

    JEJ- I'm quite looking forward to seeing what you do over the summer! I didn't recognise the chap immediately and haven't met him, but checking who he is, I agree he had massive talent. Be interesting to see how he gets on training one of the UK's top marathon runners now...



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    If I had to stick my neck right out, I'd say that a 42-minute 10k isn't an unrealistic ideal-world or even real-world target for me (43, female, not by any means a natural athlete, current PB 46 minutes) but I don't have the genetic capacity to develop the pure speed necessary to get anywhere close to 40 minutes. Given ideal conditions, it's far more likely that I could be trained to run a string of 7-minute miles than even one 6-minute mile.
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    Well this turned out to be a longer-lasting thread than I thought it would be! Long enough, though, to take us through to Vero's much-vaunted 2:30 attempt.

    Obviously, I'm not surprised at his failure, but I am surprised at the margin of his failure. I am disappointed to see from his website that he is not only making excuses, but HEROIC excuses. What a guy - carrying on bravely to the end despite having a sore leg!

    I hope, though, that he carries on running long enough to improve his marathon pb, and to learn a bit of respect for the event, and those who excel at it.

    The downside of this is that he will probably convince himself that it was just a blip. After all, heroes aren't deterred by a few setbacks along the way. But I'm keeping my fingers crossed that that is the last we hear of his Olympic ambitions.
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    JEJ - ask JD if he ever did weights or went to the gym and he'll probably answer.... "Labouring 40 hours a week on a building site? that was my gym"

    Legend!
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    JEJ - ask JD if he ever did weights or went to the gym and he'll probably answer.... "Labouring 40 hours a week on a building site? that was my gym"

    Legend!

    p.s. my ultimate potential for the marathon, everything else considered is 2:19:57

    I will come closest at the selection race for the 2014 Commonwealths, so if we have a nice easy standard....

    Any documentary makers out there?
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    Tom.Tom. ✭✭✭
    I think that I got pretty close to my potential when I was at my best in the 70s. At that time I gave up the sport due to unresolved injuries (age 28) in the belief I'd never get back to where I was again.

    Of course hindsight is a wonderful thing, and I'm tempted to think that if I had the knowledge available then, that there is now, I might have run a bit quicker.

    The older you get the more muddy the concept of potential becomes. It becomes very subjective as age tables really aren't that reliable.

    My current approach is to train as hard at my circumstances allow and set my racing targets based on how well my current training is going.
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    Well I'm highly dissapointed with today's effort, which was a combination of a few things. Given that I've ran a 33:09 in appaling weather, back in November 06, I believed and still believe that a better day will grant me a mid 32 minute 10k at least, at the moment. I don't want to talk it up though (as has been a recurring theme of this topic!) it just needs to be proved.

    If we're really going to be controversial, I have for a while had the ultimate aim of a sub 30 road 10k in the future (i.e. 29:xx)- quite a few years from now of course - but I believe I'm young enough and with the right training could get there.
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    JG2 -

    I knew it wouldn't take long fro the prohets of doom to startr rubbing their hands with glee over the Alex Vero performance today.

    Clearly, the performance was exactly what it said on the clock - and a long way off either his original or revised targets. To ridicule his injury though without any direct evidence of its severity strikes me as a bit premature.

    Have you never picked up an injury in a race which clearly affected your result, and then come back to produce a result more reflective of your true form?

    Speaking from personal experience, I ran 20miles at sub 3 pace in a mara last Autumn - then got a "sore leg" (as you might describe it) which resulted in crossing the line in 4hrs (the only way I knew back to the car was via the finish and I was determined not to let the St John's get hold of me!)

    A month later, after superb intervention by a sports therapist, I ran 2:59. So, clearly the 1st mara was (as Alex Vero has desribed his Paris run) "inconclusive".

    Lets hope he can complete an injury free mara soon to show what he is truely capable of before we start slinging the mud at him.
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    P.S. I suggest my documentary is called "The M74" (the road to Glasgow)
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    Would anyone outside the south east care to elaborate to us in the frozen north who this runner is? Soz spent my boyhood days watching Botham win the Ashes instead.

    My ultimate potential for the distances Bryn asked...

    5k sub 16, 10k sub 33, marathon sub 2:30. That would take a total non working 2 massage a day no beer / curry etc lifestyle and we all have our breaking points:-)
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    Not that I know you personally, but I think you could have higher targets than that given what you have already run for say 10k recently.
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    Tom.Tom. ✭✭✭
    Dad of Two, with one exception, none of the recent posts have been particularly dismissive of Alex's efforts on the day. However you have to admit that since this thread started, his assessment of his own capabilities have been edging downwards.

    The current discussions about the feasibility of a "Pug defined" runner running sub 35-36 mins for 10k is much more relevant (and interesting) as it addresses the issues that determine the veracity of Alex's original claims.

    As I've said previously I'd respect Alex if he recognised what his limitations were and adjusted his training and racing to achieve his true potential.
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