Great thread - might lift some of this data myself, as I'm a mathematician and may have a stab at a prediction formula of my own if the data become sufficient.........
2008 HM 1.36 (Sept) FM 3.40 (Dec) 2009 HM 1.32 (Sept) FM 3.22 (Sept) 2010 HM: 1.31 (May) FM 3.21 (May) 2011 HM 1.27 (Mar) FM .......... (4 days and counting!)
My 2008 stats are a bit misleading as this was my first marathon without a structured programme. The results from 2009 and 2010 compare well though, lets see how 2011 compares after Sunday!
After doing my first HM in Feb, I read somewhere that to work out your expected FM time you have to double it and add 10%. This would have given me a 3:28:37. Maybe if Brighton hadn't been so hot that's what I would have done?
I think the RW predictor may be a little bit optimistic too - but it could be that most of us spend longer running half marathon distances than we do marathons.
OK taking out races that were blown thru heat or undertraining :
2010 HM 1.31.12 (headwind for last 3 miles) FM 3.15.30 M 42
2008 HM 1.29.53 FM 3.19. 20 Still M but 40
2006 HM 1.25.49 FM 3.13. 27 (I suspect the HM course may have been short that year - or I was pinging !) Male again but er 38 ?
Half: 1:38:49 Full: 3:38:38 (2 even splits of 1:49 and a bit each)
Bit rubbish really but I did put in the miles (65-70 mile weeks on average, 8 x 20+ milers), so I think I'm simply cr*p .
Chickadee - it's crap to say you're crap - first half of 10 mins slower than your half mara time enabled you to run a good even split, but was probably much slower than necessary, given that your mileage suggests you have the endurance. How did you feel at the finish - as though you'd thrown the lot at it, or that you could have carried on?
birch - I was dead as a dodo and my legs wouldn't allow me to sprint to the finish, try as I might I fear that this was all I had to give on the day ... cardiowise there may have been a teensy little bit left in the tank but my legs were shot. Perhaps I should work on leg strength.
chickadee - looking at your time(s) again; you have actually converted at half mara x2, + 21 mins. Which, yesterday, compares very favourably with many . You should have plenty of leg strength from your mileage and long runs, so it might be worth building marathon effort & marathon pace running into your next buildup. Plenty of threads to offer advice, should you like.
birch: I should have added that these times are from 2010 and VLM 2010 was perfect weather for running. Unfortunately a nasty chest infection put paid to any spring marathon plans in 2011 More speedwork and more marathon miles are hopefully going to make a difference in future races.
Right, can fill in the second half of the equation now:
1/2 1hr 37.21 Full 3hrs 37.24
Absolutely over the moon with yesterday, although obviously according to running calculators etc I should be able to do better than that - but a 20 min PB and GFA is good enough for me
Comments
Female 46
HM 1:58:05 (run 2 weeks out from the marathon on a hilly offroad course, PB is 1:50:22 set Oct 2010)
M 3:58.35 (PB set 10 Apr 2011)
Iput my previous years on.......but can now add this years.
HM 1:49:14.............M 3:57:44
I think The RW one estimates too fast for the marathon which is why so many go off too fast and then fade badly
Great thread - might lift some of this data myself, as I'm a mathematician and may have a stab at a prediction formula of my own if the data become sufficient.........
For me personally - 2011 HM: 1:34:32, FM: 3:26:28
Female, age 30
2008 HM 1.36 (Sept) FM 3.40 (Dec)
2009 HM 1.32 (Sept) FM 3.22 (Sept)
2010 HM: 1.31 (May) FM 3.21 (May)
2011 HM 1.27 (Mar) FM .......... (4 days and counting!)
My 2008 stats are a bit misleading as this was my first marathon without a structured programme. The results from 2009 and 2010 compare well though, lets see how 2011 compares after Sunday!
Female, age 47 (I know, getting on a bit...)
2011 HM 2:15 FM 4:50
2011 HM: 1:34:50 FM: 3:29:25
After doing my first HM in Feb, I read somewhere that to work out your expected FM time you have to double it and add 10%. This would have given me a 3:28:37. Maybe if Brighton hadn't been so hot that's what I would have done?
Male 38
2011 HM:1:39:27 FM: 3:46:05
Male 42
2011 HM: 1:34:54 FM 3:24:33
Reading Half 20th March & Brighton Marathon10th AprilI think the RW predictor may be a little bit optimistic too - but it could be that most of us spend longer running half marathon distances than we do marathons.
OK taking out races that were blown thru heat or undertraining :
2010 HM 1.31.12 (headwind for last 3 miles) FM 3.15.30 M 42
2008 HM 1.29.53 FM 3.19. 20 Still M but 40
2006 HM 1.25.49 FM 3.13. 27 (I suspect the HM course may have been short that year - or I was pinging !) Male again but er 38 ?
Male 49
2010 HM 2:19:38
2011 HM 2:13:20 FM 5:40:40 (Brighton)
Male 31
2009-10 HM 1:38 FM 3:48
2010-11 HM 1:37 FM 3:55
Target for both marathons were 3:30, Brighton 2011 was HOT!!.. No Excuses next year.
I wanna see some graphs when this is all done! (I sincerely wish I had more data to give you...)
Male 38
2007 HM 1:23 FM 3:04
2008 HM 1:15 FM 2:44
Male 41/42
2010 HM 1.43.58 FM 3.35.39
2011 HM 1.27.45 FM 3.17.27
female 25
2010 HM 2.01 FM 4.52
Not done many 1/2s, but
2007 -- 1:32 and 3:10 (aged 28)
2011 -- 1:27 and whatever I do on Sunday! Hopefully around 3:05
2011 -- 1:29 and 3:50 (Both Brighton -I'm no good in the hot weather!)
Ant P wrote (see)
Erm, not exactly a great conversion again. similar to the last on really! Perhaps an equation for me.
2011 HM 1:36 Brentwood -> 3:43 London (Male 41)
female, 28
HM 2011 1:58
FM 2011 4:37
male 27,
HM 2011 1.36
FM 2011 3.48
poor conversion - more miles required in the legs!
the hm*2+10% only really works if you've done the miles - no secret there
HM (training run Mar 11) 1:24:33
VLM 11 - 3:15:54 (halfway in 1:29:10, walked some of the 2nd half)
Half: 1:38:49
Full: 3:38:38 (2 even splits of 1:49 and a bit each)
Bit rubbish really but I did put in the miles (65-70 mile weeks on average, 8 x 20+ milers), so I think I'm simply cr*p .
Female 38
HM 1.58
VLM 09 5.02
2011
Half 1.36. VLM 3.28
birch - I was dead as a dodo and my legs wouldn't allow me to sprint to the finish, try as I might I fear that this was all I had to give on the day ... cardiowise there may have been a teensy little bit left in the tank but my legs were shot. Perhaps I should work on leg strength.
Female, 42
2011
Half 1.34.05 (Norwich, 6 weeks before VLM)
Full 3.24.42 (VLM)
chickadee - looking at your time(s) again; you have actually converted at half mara x2, + 21 mins. Which, yesterday, compares very favourably with many . You should have plenty of leg strength from your mileage and long runs, so it might be worth building marathon effort & marathon pace running into your next buildup. Plenty of threads to offer advice, should you like.
Cheers
More speedwork and more marathon miles are hopefully going to make a difference in future races.
Definitely should - and I notice you've "only" 3 years running seriously, so plenty to come.
1/2 1hr 37.21
Full 3hrs 37.24
Absolutely over the moon with yesterday, although obviously according to running calculators etc I should be able to do better than that - but a 20 min PB and GFA is good enough for me