Are you and "in" or an "out"?

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  • 13 Nobel prize winning scientists tell us to remain in.

    brexiteers say to leave as it's our money they get anyway to fund their research..



    Sorry but I'm plumping on the side of the fricking NOBEL PRIZE WINNERS!
  • Philomena Cunk wrote (see)

    An American guy was saying the other week. " If you keep telling people their problems are not real and they are just misguided , you end up with Donald Trump"

    I don't think it hurts to remind people when their problems aren't the fault of those they think it is. Otherwise you are saying it's pretty much OK for them to blame the scary brown people rather than government policy.

  • ZouseZouse ✭✭✭

    Michael Dougan is Professor of European Law at University of Liverpool. He has spent his career looking at European Constitution & how it impacts on the UK. In this vid he gives his viewpoint on the EU referendum, and discusses the facts and figures circulated by both the ‘Leave’ and ‘Remain’ campaigns - it's 24 mins long, but it's definitely worth making the time for if you want some genuine evidence about the whole business.

    https://youtu.be/USTypBKEd8Y

  • Most of the people who are asked to voice their opinion are people who 'have'.

    The 'haves' are not trusted by the 'have nots'.

    As in all votes the question is whether the 'haves' have done their calculations right so there are just enough people who perceive they are a 'have' in the current system to not want to change it.

    It is irrelevant whether or not the 'have nots' will be better or worse off if the vote is leave. It is also irrelevant to the outcome if the 'have nots' are 'have nots' because we are in the EU or for some other reason, like a government austerity programme for example.

    This is way way too complicated for the population to be voting on and is a complete abdication of duty by politicians.

    I am surprised there are so many people on here who are prepared to state that you are a numpty if you would even consider voting out - whatever the campaign lies and sensationalism being used behind the headline grabbing there are a lot of intelligent people who believe we might be better off out (and lots more who think in), or, as I like to think of it, not better off staying in. 

    Despite all this it is rather ironic, as well as tragic, that after all the campaigning, TV debates, youtube blogs, newspaper headlines etc etc, it seems likely the vote is actually going to be decided by one mentally unstable man killing someone.

    In reading this you might think I am voting Leave but actually I am still undecided.

    I've found out today I'm going to be in Poland on Thursday so am sorting out an Emergency Proxy form so must believe that by Thursday I will have decided one way or the other.

  • RicFRicF ✭✭✭
    maybe not

     

  • HA77HA77 ✭✭✭

    Well said Skinny. I was thinking of saying something similar but I'm sure it wouldn't have come out sounding as good. 

  • literatinliteratin ✭✭✭

    I'm 100% 'remain'. I'm emotionally and ideologically in favour of a united Europe, but I also genuinely believe that people in Britain are better off in the EU, and that workers' rights (among other things I think are important) are more likely to be protected if we stay. And I also believe that the EU (of which we are still, for now, a part) will also be better off with Britain in it.

    However, if you are still not sure and cannot be firmly persuaded either way before Thursday, I think you should abstain.* This shows that you are participating in the democratic process, but that you don't want to or don't feel able to answer 'yes' or 'no' to this particular question. That's also a political statement.

    *(except that if I personally wasn't sure I'd vote 'remain', actually, because we're much more likely to have another chance to vote out than we are to be able to get back in again if it all goes horribly wrong.)

  • PhilPubPhilPub ✭✭✭
    Skinny Fetish Fan wrote (see)

     

    This is way way too complicated for the population to be voting on and is a complete abdication of duty by politicians.

     

    Very much this. I'm voting Remain, because it's my best guess regarding what's best for not just the country but also the rest of Europe (and the world. Big hugs!)  SFF has articulated much of my thoughts about the whole sorry affair.  The EU is a very complicated institution and despite having studied various aspects of it to one degree or another I'm not going to pretend to know all about our relationship with it, either now or in the future.

    I don't believe all the Leave campaigners are self-interested politicians and/or racist xenophobes and/or complete buffoons, but I haven't heard many convincing arguments for turning our backs on our European neighbours, so on balance I think we've got less chance of being fcuked if we stay in.  Hopefully this happens and posterity will remember it as an endorsement of our relationship with Europe.  And the Tory party falling apart.  image

  • literatinliteratin ✭✭✭
    PhilPub wrote (see)
    Skinny Fetish Fan wrote (see)

     

    This is way way too complicated for the population to be voting on and is a complete abdication of duty by politicians.

     

    Very much this. I'm voting Remain, because it's my best guess regarding what's best for not just the country but also the rest of Europe (and the world. Big hugs!)

    Yeah, I think this too. Not in a patronising 'normal people are too thick to know what's good for them' way, but because so many people are undecided or feel they don't have enough reliable information to make a decision, and it's close enough that this HUGE decision could end up being swung one way or another by people who don't actually HAVE a strong opinion. And then we'll all have to live with it.

  • PhilPubPhilPub ✭✭✭
    Zouse wrote (see)

    Michael Dougan is Professor of European Law at University of Liverpool. He has spent his career looking at European Constitution & how it impacts on the UK. In this vid he gives his viewpoint on the EU referendum, and discusses the facts and figures circulated by both the ‘Leave’ and ‘Remain’ campaigns - it's 24 mins long, but it's definitely worth making the time for if you want some genuine evidence about the whole business.

    https://youtu.be/USTypBKEd8Y

    Done. Flashbacks from degree level Economic Geography!  Not that I was very attentive in the first place; the ins and outs of EU constitution aren't very interesting. image 

    Very useful info. I think the benefits of the single market are hugely underestimated, and a lot of people are obviously massively misinformed about the idea of sovereignty.  Like he says, nobody really knows what will happen if we leave, but surely it's not a stretch of the imagination to suppose that the headache of trying to set up new trading agreements could lead to a rather nasty recession.

    An interesting statistic he mentions: 3 million Euro forrins living here; 2 million ex-pats over there. Swapsies?  So we'd also be simultaneously causing a huge skills shortage whilst taking back a load of sun-frazzled pensioners.  Hmmm... image

  •  

    literatin wrote (see)
    PhilPub wrote (see)
    Skinny Fetish Fan wrote (see)

     

    This is way way too complicated for the population to be voting on and is a complete abdication of duty by politicians.

     

    Very much this. I'm voting Remain, because it's my best guess regarding what's best for not just the country but also the rest of Europe (and the world. Big hugs!)

    Yeah, I think this too. Not in a patronising 'normal people are too thick to know what's good for them' way, but because so many people are undecided or feel they don't have enough reliable information to make a decision, and it's close enough that this HUGE decision could end up being swung one way or another by people who don't actually HAVE a strong opinion. And then we'll all have to live with it.

    image - are you calling me patronising love?

    I think if I've spent the last three months reading about it, listening to debates, watching you tube clips and considering the impact on the multinational company I work for and still HAVEN'T formed a strong opinion but believe I am as well informed as I can be then I am entitled to cast my 51:49 decision as 1 vote in the same way as someone who has always known which way they would vote.

     

  • literatinliteratin ✭✭✭

    Don't patronise me you smug middle-class multinational industrialist. image I was thinking more of the people who haven't spent the last three months making themselves as well-informed as they could possibly be, but who do turn up to vote and go one way or the other because there's not an 'I'm not sure' box.

  • image - oh shit now I'm confused - is HAVEN'T more or less significant than haven't.


    Anyhow I haven't had a chance to hand in my emergency proxy form today so that only leaves tomorrow or I will have TOTALLY wasted a significant amount of my time in the last three months.

  • literatinliteratin ✭✭✭
    Skinny Fetish Fan wrote (see)

    image - oh shit now I'm confused - is HAVEN'T more or less significant than haven't.

    More sophisticated?

  • JT141JT141 ✭✭✭
    Sorry in advance. I figured this was important so I've been thinking about my vote for this Thursday. I'm no expert on anything. I'm making a lot of best guesses. But anyway, strap yourselves in, this goes on a bit.



    First off, I've no sense that we aren't self-determining and lack financial and sovereign control over our infrastructure and services. Services are always under pressure from the populace, whoever it's made up of. The fortunes of the public sector always waxes and wanes depending on the political commitment to it.



    Democracy within the EU isn't a bugbear. It may throw up diktats of collective action concerning work, safety, environment etc. that go contrary to the position of an individual member state, but it's still effectively a council body for those states. Policy is derived from the membership and the commission, and mediated, amended or rejected through chambers of directly elected MEPs. Above all else it is a free trade body, with a broadly social liberal outlook. It's not perfect. It's not terrible. It doesn't go away if we don't participate. If think many who view it with great suspicion and negativity will not be mollified if we leave. It will just become the wolf at the door.



    The outlook of most economic bodies point to a fiscal decline in the immediate and medium term. It is inevitably supposition, but it's all we have. Longer term economic benefits from leaving would be dependent on the quality of newly negotiated trade deals. Time scales are all up in the air. Trade with the EU would surely continue, but access to the market and terms of trade would suffer. Negotiating the exit at the same time as the terms for a future relationship will be fun.



    It's not clear what the political intentions are if we leave. I guess for a significant period the political landscape and future mapping will be heavily influenced by right of centre, private interest and absolute market freedom views. That's what marks out the leading Brexit campaigners in the governing party. Such an outlook would likely come into play for home politics as well.



    Trading outside Europe, London's financial sector is a major hub and probably our strongest international asset. The financial services sector is very attractive to countries like China and Russia. Tapping those markets would require greater flexibility and deregulation. It could be very lucrative. It could be very troublesome. The banking sector doesn't cover itself in glory when left unchecked. China's economy is built on state control which makes it hard to read. Also Europe maintains a fairly broad middle-class with at least some semblance of economic parity. While it fosters wealth we don't get such extremes of economic elite and oligarchy. Our potential new trading partners do. Also I think our identity is effected by where our greatest ties and dependency lies. With all the concerns that we're subsumed by the EU, Europe at least feels to be in our image. China, Russia, India etc. feel more alien. The identity that we want to protect may be changed more substantially by leaving than by staying.

    Who know's if any of that comes to pass. There is no plan on exit. The financial sector itself is mainly on the remain side. I'm taking a guess, and it could be my paranoid alarmist moment. But it concerns me.
  • JT141JT141 ✭✭✭
    and on...



    Immigration looks to be central in this vote. Immigration from within the EU is rising. Freedom of movement rules in the EU prevent a cap. Not ideal. An optimistic thought is that former eastern bloc countries recently entered into EU will increasingly grow financially and stabilise. That was the idea of them joining. The continued movement of workers from east to west may not be inevitable. We've got quite a big low level services economy in the UK. EU immigration has probably filled a few gaps. Negotiation with EU as a trading block will most likely raise the issue of free movement. It's possible that for the UK to negotiate favourable free trade we might need to acquiesce to the EU's fundamental free movement of people policy. The government isn't in favour of exit so they wouldn't be breaching any stated commitments by doing so. It's worth a thought. What immigration numbers would be like after an exit is another unknown. Probably reduced, but no idea by how much.



    Aside from that there's the emotional response to immigration. The heart of it may have to do with identity, society, sense of self and lots of amorphous stuff. Well, the best I can come up with is this. An immigrant is someone who moves from one country to another to study, work, or look for work. It's not an ideology or an adherence to a set of practices or beliefs. It's not a set of characteristics. It's a Spanish student, a Polish hotel worker, a Sri Lankan nurse and whatever else. Yet the word has become loaded with characteristics, outlooks, traits, motives. What they are for different people could well be decisive in how they vote. I ran a test on myself to see what unfiltered stuff came up when I thought of "immigrant". And "scruffy" popped into my head. That didn't surprise me all that much. But at least I've figured out it's fundamentally a mistake. An immigrant is and isn't scruffy, an immigrant is anybody.



    It's not easy to establish where the line is on immigration between legitimate concerns, unwarranted concerns, and outright bigotry. The Australian points system gets talked about as a solution, but it hasn't stopped immigration being a highly contentious public and political issue over their. Leaving the EU will still leave people here unsatisfied. The whole debate on immigration leads out to some murky waters with some murky bastards in it. There are the further reaches of paranoid rightwing fantasists who see an EU exit as a step to something more. They wont get what they ultimately want, but even in this EU debate they are very uncomfortable company to keep. And then there's Farage. Excuse this moment of petty abuse but for me he is less a politician and more a donkey's massive rectal prolapse.



    Ultimately we're mostly ignorant of what the EU does, what the EU even is, of the benefits and drawbacks of our membership, and of the ramifications of leaving. But leaving does represent a significant change which in itself is enticing. For some, to be able to enact serious change, when so little of what we do seems to make a difference, is enough.



    Last word is I've got younger family members at university. They don't want to leave the EU. Their peers don't want to leave. They see an exit as a limitation on their opportunities and a financial blight as they begin their working lives. And they resent it being imposed on them by older generations who will not suffer the consequences they will. It's not a legacy they want. So it's not one I'll vote to give them.



    Thanks for your time. Vote on Thursday, and please consider your vote carefully.
  • I ain't reading all of that ffs

  • literatinliteratin ✭✭✭

    I read it so you don't have to, PC. I'm a fast reader though. It was good. image

  • No it's waffle. You like it cos it's waffle which suits what you think. 

     

  • JT141JT141 ✭✭✭
    Did you end up reading it PC? If so thanks anyway whatever you make of it. I'm thinking of bringing it out in hardback.
  • VDOT52VDOT52 ✭✭✭
    This kind of sums up my thoughts:



    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/jun/20/brexit-fake-revolt-eu-working-class-culture-hijacked-help-elite?campaign_id=A100&campaign_type=Email



    If you can't be bothered using the link my own version of it is that Brexit will bring a downturn that will cost a lot of jobs, homes and it will destroy ordinary families.

    The cash rich will buy up repossessed homes as fast as they can and when things finally start to improve the gap Between ordinary people and be real toffs will be much bigger than even the gaping great chasm that already exists. Those who are pushing for Brexit have enough cash to not only survive but also enogh to enable them to fleece everybody else while they are at it.
  • Not really but I got the gist. If you managed to make a relevant point without misleading the public like all have done so far then well done.

  • literatinliteratin ✭✭✭
    Philomena Cunk wrote (see)

    No it's waffle. You like it cos it's waffle which suits what you think. 

     

    Well, I didn't agree with all of it, but it is true that I liked the end bit.

    Also my mum's an immigrant.

  • Nose NowtNose Nowt ✭✭✭

    Skinny...  you say that Jo Cox's murder will seal the referendum (presumably you think it helps Remain).   Do you really think so?   I suppose it might just lean towards people  rallying around the establishment a bit... and in such a tight referendum, even 0.5% shift could make a difference!   If there is an influence, I think it will be that small though.

    Bad news for you though..  the deadline for registering for proxy votes passed last week.  http://www.aboutmyvote.co.uk/how-do-i-vote/voting-by-proxy

  • You can track the market's view of whether the vote will be remain or leave by watching the value of GBP v USD. 

    Up until her untimely murder GBP over 3 weeks from £1:47 to the $ down to £1.41 to £1.42 to the $. In the days since her death GBP has risen back to £1.47 to $. It may not make many people vote differently but the markets believe that sentiment at the margins has been changed sufficiently to be decisive.

    On the proxy votes you are right and wrong. I am too late to apply for a proxy vote but eligible for an emergency proxy vote as my work has told me I need to be out of the country since the proxy vote deadline passed.

     

  • Yep, agree with JT and VDOT

    What we could have done with is AV where we would at least have had a more representative and co-operative Parliament. But no, too complicated apparently

    I say again:Turkeys, Christmas... 

     

  • MuttleyMuttley ✭✭✭

    Thank you, Mr Beckham, for letting us know your view on which way to vote. But you're a footballer. Why should anyone care what you think about the EU?

  • PhilPubPhilPub ✭✭✭
    Muttley wrote (see)

    Thank you, Mr Beckham, for letting us know your view on which way to vote. But you're a footballer. Why should anyone care what you think about the EU?

    For that matter, why should anyone care what make of razor he uses or pants he wears?  Ask Gillette or Calvin Klein.  image

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